Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Evelyn Lees for Tuesday - January 23, 2018 - 7:00am
bottom line

The Avalanche Danger is MODERATE on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing northerly through easterly. Human triggered avalanches are possible, and large avalanches can be triggered in isolated places. Avoid the steep, north through easterly facing slopes, where it’s most likely to trigger a slab avalanche.

Periods of winds have created a MODERATE danger for triggering wind drifts along mid and upper elevation ridgelines, which will become more widespread this afternoon. Both dry and wet loose sluffs are possible on steep slopes.

Low angle slopes of all aspects have superb turning and riding in classic Utah powder.




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current conditions

About a foot of settled powder continues to provide excellent turning and riding conditions on all wind sheltered aspects in the Ogden area backcountry. This morning, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the teens and the westerly winds are light. Speeds are averaging 5 to 10 mph at the low and mid elevations, and 15 to 20 mph across the highest peak. Yesterday there was a mini wind event, with Mount Ogden averaging 35 mph, gusting to 40 for several hours from the west southwest.

recent activity

Slightly stronger winds across Cutler Ridge in the Ogden area mountains quickly whipped up some very sensitive wind drifts, foreshadowing the tomorrow’s conditions. Doug Wewer photo and observation.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Poor structure – a slab above various layers of weak snow - remains widespread in the snow pack. It is still possible for a person to trigger a slide failing on one of these unpredictable weak, sugary layers, on a steep, shady northwest through easterly facing slope, that would be 1 to 3 feet deep, and up to a couple hundred feet wide. Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect – such as rocky rollovers. Weak basal facets have been noted on southwesterly facing slopes, too, in the Salt Lake area mountains.

Craig and Andrew went and looked at the Caribou slide, Snake Creek, in the Provo area mountains, Snake Creek, which failed on one of the facet layers. A great visual of Strong snow/weak snow.

Full observation with video here.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Vast amounts of snow are available for transport, and a mini wind event yesterday on Cutler Ridge, Ben Lomond, quickly whipped up some very sensitive wind drifts, which could be triggered from a distance. A brief overnight increase in wind speeds created new drifts along the higher elevations, and drifts will become even more widespread as wind speeds increase this afternoon and tonight.

Heads up: tomorrow the landscape and danger will change with strong winds in the forecast.

Cutler ridge wind slab, Doug Wewer photo.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Both dry and wet loose sluffs are possible today.

Dry loose sluffs: could still be triggered today on very steep slopes of all aspects, and a few may be far running if they have slick sun or wind crusts beneath them.

Wet Loose Sluffs: direct sun and warming temperatures this afternoon may dampen the snow surface on south through westerly facing slopes, making it possible to trigger damp sluffs on steep slopes

weather

One more quiet weather day before the winds ramp up tonight and tomorrow, ahead of the next storm on Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to sunny skies this afternoon, with temperatures warming into the upper twenties. Winds should finally settle on a southwesterly direction, and slowly increase, reaching 15 mph averages by afternoon, with gusts in the 20s. The highest ridgelines will reach averages in the 20s, gusting in the 30s. Warm, and increasingly windy tomorrow ahead of Thursday evening’s quick moving storm, which should bring 4 to 7” of new snow

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.