Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains Issued by Greg Gagne for Friday - March 18, 2016 - 6:45am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. The two primary concerns are (1) wind drifted snow at upper elevations, and (2) wet loose avalanches as the strong March sun warms the snow surface.
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current conditions

Skies are clear this morning and temperatures are in the teens and low 20's.

Winds in the Ogden area mountains have continued to diminish and are now blowing lightly out of Westerly directions with gusts in the mid teens.

The snow surface is now crusted on most solar aspects.

A quick review of weather and avalanche activity from this past week is helpful for understanding the current and forecasted avalanche problems: A storm system moved in on Monday and it continued snowing through Wednesday morning. Storm totals were 12-20" in the Ogden mountains. Winds from the West have accompanied this system with wind drifts along upper elevation ridgelines.. Beginning today, we are expected to undergo a gradual period of warming that is likely to introduce the onset of wet avalanche activity.
recent activity

One slide of significance was reported from Thursday in the Salt Lake area mountains. This occurred on a Northeast aspect on the Park City ridgeline and was an intentionally-triggered avalanche on a freshly wind-loaded slope from a cornice kick. The crown was up to 3' in places, and it propagated 150'. UAC Pro Observer Mark White seems to have a magical touch for safely finding the right slopes to avalanche, and you can read his usual excellent observation here.

Otherwise minor wet loose activity was observed on solar aspects as the skies began to clear on Thursday afternoon.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Although winds are continuing to diminish, much of the upper elevations have been wind affected from the persistent winds over the past week. While I am expecting wind drifts to be less sensitive today, the prolonged period of Westerly winds warrants our continued attention to wind drifted snow along the upper elevation ridgelines. You are most likely to find wind drifts on aspects with an Easterly component, although terrain features have channeled winds onto a variety of aspects at the upper elevations.

Many observers have also noted the growing cornices which remained quite sensitive on Thursday.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

With the Vernal Equinox only two days away, the strong March sun will quickly heat the snow today with both natural and human-triggered wet loose slides likely, and decent storm totals from this past week are providing the sun with a good amount of fresh snow to work with. Although I am expecting wet activity primarily on East, South, through West aspects, it is possible that lower elevation North aspects may warm as well.

Be sure to get off of and out from underneath slopes as they warm from the sun. Signs of warming include wet, sloppy snow as well as rollerballs. With natural wet sluffs possible today, avoid travel below steep sunny slopes and gullies.
weather

Winds out of the West are expected to continue to diminish today with gusts in the mid teens along upper ridgelines. Temperatures are expected to climb in the mid 30's F at mid elevations, and mid 20's F at upper elevations. Expect mostly sunny skies with an occasional passing cloud. A ridge of high pressure will move over Utah this weekend with a significant warming trend expected.
general announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to request a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911.  Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.