Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Thursday - December 31, 2015 - 7:32am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is an elevated MODERATE today on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E. We are currently in a low probability - high consequence phase for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche in these areas. Stick to slopes less steep than 35 degrees or choose a southerly facing aspect for safer riding conditions today.




special announcement

Grand County made it up the road with the grader yesterday and opened things up. Passage is narrow, and there will be a few inches of new snow on the road this morning.

current conditions

It just keeps coming in for us. 5-8" of new, low density, light powder snow fell in the mountains last night putting a fresh coat of paint on upper elevation wind damage, and enhancing the already excellent conditions that exist in sheltered areas. Winds overnight averaged 15 mph with gusts as high as 30 from the SW. They tapered off and shifted to the NW around 4:00 a.m. and are currently in the single digits. It's going to be frosty cold up there today and it is currently 11 degrees at Geyser Pass Trailhead and 0 on Pre Laurel Peak.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 65"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead
recent activity

Snow from the Christmas storm, and the wind event of Dec 26, produced natural avalanche activity on all aspects. Slides on slopes facing W-S-SE were pockety in nature, and consisted of newly deposited wind slabs averaging 2- 3' deep. More significant slides occurred on north and east facing aspects including a full depth release more than 6' deep on the east face of Tukno. For a complete list of observed avalanches go here.

East face of Tukno. Slide on left ran full depth to the ground whereas slide on the right ran down to a mid level persistent weakness.

View shows two other slides in Gold Basin. Only Gravel Pit Lanes ran full depth.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Persistent slab problems vary, and avalanches are becoming harder to trigger, but the consequences remain high. At upper elevations, it is possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche to the ground though it is more likely that one would be triggered on a mid-level faceted layer, or on an old hard wind slab surface. Right around tree line or just below, the snowpack is shallower and weaker, and the potential for triggering a full depth avalanche is greater, particularly in areas of rocky and more radical terrain.

Avoidance of slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E is currently the best strategy, but with several inches of fresh, light powder snow, plenty of good riding options exist on lower angle slopes, or on those that face the south half of the compass.

weather

Today

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly between 11am and 2pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wind chill values as low as -25. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

New Year's Day

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. Wind chill values as low as -25. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -15. South wind around 15 mph.

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 14. South wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night

A 10 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 20.
general announcements

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.