Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Logan Area Mountains Issued by Toby Weed for Friday - February 12, 2016 - 6:33am
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MODERATE (level 2): Heightened wet avalanche conditions will again develop on sunny slopes in the midday heat. Dangerous triggered persistent slab avalanches are rather unlikely but remain possible in outlying areas with shallow weak snow. We are finding stable snow conditions and a LOW danger on slopes with deeper snow and where the snow is not saturated by melt. Use normal caution, evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and avoid midday travel on or under steep sunny slopes.
current conditions

It's a bit blustery on the ridge tops, but pretty warm in the mountains again this morning, with no overnight freeze and 33 degrees at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Southwest wind increased overnight and is currently averaging 26 mph and gusting into the thirties. The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel also reports above freezing overnight temperatures and 34 degrees this morning. There's 68 inches of total snow at the site , containing 103% of average water content for the date. We are finding good stability in areas with deep (or average) snowcover, and you might still be able to find some hidden stashes with nice smooth and fast settled or recrystalized powder on due north facing slopes.

recent activity

With the first significant heating of the season, natural loose wet avalanches are flowing off south facing slopes in the midday heat like hot candle wax. The activity appears to be occurring midday, working it's way around the south half of the compass with the sun. Natural wet avalanches were triggered this week in the heat of the day by snow rolling off rocks, tree bombs, and even moose.

Fresh natural loose wet avalanches on the north side of Cherry Creek Canyon in the Mt Naomi Wilderness. (2-10-16)

An observer on the west shore of Bear Lake, in Fish Haven Idaho, reported a fairly large fresh hard slab avalanche viewed on Sunday on a east facing slope at around 7100' in elevation. It looks like westerly winds over the weekend were enough to overload a slope plagued by weak sugary or faceted snow near the ground. view the Avalanche Report

***To view our updated list of backcountry observations and avalanche activity from around Utah, go to our observations page

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 10 hours
description

As the snow adjusts to the heating and as most steep sunny slopes have already done their thing, we should see less frequent natural sluffing today, but triggered avalanches are certainly possible (and perhaps likely) in the heat of the day on any steep slope with warmth softened saturated snow. Best today to once again avoid midday travel on or below steep sunny slopes.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

A lingering possibility of triggering a dangerous persistent slab avalanche exists in outlying terrain and on some isolated slopes with thin and weak snow cover. Weak snow structure exists mainly in areas where the total snow is 3 feet deep or less. Persistent slab avalanches are unlikely but possible in areas where a slab of stronger snow sits atop weak faceted snow, like windswept rocky upper and mid elevation elevation terrain, slopes that avalanched earlier in the winter, and in some areas at lower elevations where the thin snowpack is very weak.


weather

A couple weak weather systems will cross over the region this weekend, hopefully bringing some relief from the smog and a chance of snow showers. It'll be mostly sunny today with high thin clouds, a southwest breeze, and a high temperature at 8500' of around 47 degrees. Expect partly cloudy conditions in the mountains tonight with a low around 28 degrees. Snow showers are possible tomorrow morning, but the sun will be out in the afternoon and the high temperature will rise to around 44 degrees with increasing southwest winds. We'll see snow in the mountains on Sunday, with sustained and gusty west winds and 2 to 4 inches of accumulation possible.

general announcements

Please submit snow and avalanche observations from your ventures in the backcountry HERE. You can call us at 801-524-5304 or email HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram or Tweet us @UAClogan. To report avalanche activity in the Logan Area or to contact the local avalanche forecaster call me, Toby, at 435-757-7578. 

We'll update this advisory throughout the season on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by about 7:30

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.