Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Logan Area Mountains Issued by Toby Weed for Friday - December 25, 2015 - 7:21am
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CONSIDERABLE (level 3): Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, especially in drifted terrain at upper and mid elevations. Large and destructive triggered avalanches remain likely in some areas. Resist the temptation, and continue to avoid travel on or below drifted upper elevation slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.​​ Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious routefinding and conservative decision-making will be essential in the backcountry this weekend.




current conditions

Heavy snowfall and extensive drifting from strong and sustained west winds overloaded a very weak preexisting base, and unstable, avalanche-prone snow exists over widespread areas. Deep powder and dangerous avalanche conditions are keeping most people out of trouble these days, but as the snow gradually becomes more stable and tracks are beaten into areas, folks are likely to start taking risks in steeper terrain. Clearing and a bit af sunshine over the weekend will definately bring people out, and unfortunately we're set up for likely avalanche accidents in the backcountry..


The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports a gain of 5.3" of water and a few feet of snow since Sunday, 12/20/15... It's 10 degrees this morning and there's 67 inches of total snow, now containing 110% of average water content for the date. It's 7 degrees at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, which recorded an overnight direction shift from south to nothwest and wind speeds are currently fairly light.


South winds picked up yesterday afternoon, easily drifting tons of fresh light powder into lee terrain. (12-24-15)



recent activity

Evidence of natural activity from the prolonged storm is visible from Cache Valley, and looks to have been fairly widespread across the zone... Looks like a number of good sized avalanches occurred early in the storm (Monday Night or Tuesday) and the crowns and debris piles are largely blown-in and obscurred by around 2 feet of powder recieved since. Of note; I could see evidence of significant activity on the east face of Mt. Magog, from a distance in the Music Note Area in Mill Hollow, and a few of the usual suspects in the east facing paths in the Wellsville Range including Pine Canyon. Of great concern are the many suspect steep slopes and avalanche paths in the area that do not show any signs of recent activity... Many of these may being lying in wait for a trigger

A fresh soft slab avalanche in drifted upper elevation terrain near Grandfather Cornice on Cornice Ridge. (12-24-15)


  • Saturday (12-19-15): A very experienced local rider who was separated from his companion is lucky to be alive after triggering a good sized avalanche, being caught and carried through thick trees, and then being mostly buried and trapped in the debris. See Video Report
  • Sunday (12-20-15): A skier reported remote triggering a large hard slab avalanche Sunday afternoon on a drifted north facing slope high on the south rim of Logan Canyon off the ridge deviding Logan Canyon from Dry Canyon..... Go to his Report

Many large and dangerous natural and triggered avalanches have occurred around the state in the last few days, and it looks like it'll be a dangerous weekend as folks start venturing further out into the backcountry. ***To view our updated list of backcountry observations and avalanche activity from around Utah, go to our observations page


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Widespread very weak snow is now overloaded by a few feet of heavier drifted snow and deceptive powder, and dangerous avalanche conditions exist in many areas. Dangerous persistent slab avalanches remain likely today, especially in drifted terrain at upper and mid-elevations. Differentiated from persistent slabs only by depth and slab hardness, deep slab avalanches, also failing on weak faceted snow in the basal layers of the snowpack, are also likely, mainly in drifted upper elevation terrain.


***You should give slopes steeper than about 30 degrees some time to strengthen after the huge load they receaved in the last couple days. It'll be wise to continue to avoid backcountry avalanche terrain, but if you must venture into the mountains and into the backcountry, pay close attention to signs of unstable snow like recent avalanches, whumpfing, and shooting cracks, and be willing to reevaluate your plans. In these conditions you could trigger avalanches remotely, from a distance or worse, from below!

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

South winds drifted significant quantities of light surface snow into lee slope deposition areas creating sensitive wind slabs 1 to 2 feet deep. These could fail on a storm interface or a density change within the recent snow. A smaller wind slab avalanche overrunning a slope below could trigger a larger and more destructive avalanche involving old weak snow.

weather

We can expect cloudy conditions and a good chance of snow again today, with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation possible by this evening. Temperatures at 8500' will stay in the mid to lower teens and 15 to 20 mph north winds will push wind chills well below zero. Continuing snow showers are possible tonight and it'll be cold, with a low of around 1 degree and north winds in the teens pushing the wind chill into the negative 15 degree range. Cold temperatures will continue, but clearing and sunshine is expected for the weekend.

general announcements

Please submit snow and avalanche observations from your ventures in the backcountry HERE. You can call us at 801-524-5304 or email HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram or Tweet us @UAClogan. To report avalanche activity in the Logan Area or to contact the local avalanche forecaster call me, Toby, at 435-757-7578. 

I'll update this advisory throughout the season on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by about 7:30

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.