Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Logan Area Mountains Issued by Toby Weed for Saturday - December 5, 2015 - 7:14am
bottom line

LOW (level 1): Avalanches are unlikely for the most part, but there are some exceptions at upper elevations. Wind slab avalanches are possible in some drifted terrain, and you might trigger loose avalanches involving very weak faceted snow on steep shady slopes. Avalanches could release to the ground on weak sugary snow, and any ride in an avalanche would be quite dangerous due to shallow snow cover and sharp rock in avalanche runout zones.




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current conditions

Winds diminished and veered from the northwest overnight, posting hourly average wind speeds in the upper single digits at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, and it's currently 14 degrees at 9700'. It's 23 degrees at the 8400' Tony Grove SNOTEL and there's 20 inches of total snow on the ground containing 64% of average water content for the date. With the widespread thin snow cover you'll probably want to stick to the roads, meadows, and smooth low angled terrain this weekend.

Shallow, very weak snow in the Steep Hollow Area will probably create dangerous avalanche conditions once significant snow stacks up on it. (12-3-2015)


Loose faceted snow crystals plague the shallow snowpack in the Logan Zone and are likely to make local avalanche conditions dangerous once real snow falls in the region again. (Pagnucco 12-4-2015)

Words of warning: Very shallow, early season conditions exist, and you are still likely to hit rocks or woody debris in most areas. The Tony Grove Road is not maintained in the winter for wheeled vehicles, and road conditions are icy, snowy, drifted-in and treacherous, so come prepared. The Tony Grove Area is a shared use area and very popular in the early season, so please watch your speed, use patience, and be respectful of other users. For easier access, Beaver Mt. allows uphill travel and appreciates early season users packing down the weak snow. Remember while the lifts are closed, the area is considered backcountry .

It's time to dust off and check the condition of your avalanche rescue equipment. Review and practice Companion Avalanche Rescue with our video..........HERE****

recent activity

No avalanches were reported locally since November 20, when we picked up a foot of heavy snow containing 2.5 inches of water and several natural avalanches occurred, as well as one above the Tony Grove Campground, remote triggered by a skier which sympathetically released an adjacent pocket.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Strong and sustained south winds on Thursday night drifted old snow into lee avalanche starting zones at upper elevations... I don't expect extensive drifting occurred since there has not been any new snow this week, but stiff fresh wind slabs likely formed in common deposition areas. Older hard wind slabs are now crumbly and badly weakened by the faceting process. The old hard slabs are relaxed and no longer very sensitive and many no longer support your weight, but some in more extreme terrain may be like large mouse traps and may wait until you get well out on them before releasing on weak snow near the ground.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Loose sluffs involving very weak sugary or faceted snow are possible in steep terrain. The snow is so weak, especially on shady slopes, that facet sluffs entraining all the snow to the ground are possible. Loose avalanches may initiate from a point release or could be caused by a smaller wind slab release, gouging the loose snow in descent.

On Thursday I could see evidence of some recent loose facet sluff activity in the Steep Hollow Area from earlier in the week. (12-3-2015)
weather

Looks like high pressure conditions will redevelop over the weekend. Expect sunny skies in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures around 27 degrees and light westerly wind. We'll see unsettled conditions with periodic up-ticks in winds and potential for a little snow next week with the storm track grazing us but generally to our north. Still a bit too early to tell, but looks like a possible productive storm later in the week (Thursday?) with 1 or 2 inches of water equivalent apparent in some model runs...

general announcements

Please submit snow and avalanche observations from your ventures in the backcountry HERE. You can call us at 801-524-5304 or email HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram or Tweet us @UAClogan. To report avalanche activity in the Logan Area or to contact the local avalanche forecaster call me, Toby, at 435-757-7578. 

I'll update this advisory throughout the season on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings by about 7:30

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.