Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - February 21, 2016 - 7:43am
bottom line

The overall avalanche danger is generally LOW. But low danger doesn't mean no danger and you should always maintain avalanche awareness, and carefully analyze steep terrain.
special announcement

Hats off to Moab Powersports for stepping up and getting their snowbike riders educated about avalanches. These fellas just completed a 101 course with a nighttime classroom session and a day in the field. Good job guys!
current conditions


Skies are clear this morning and ridge top winds are in the 10-50 mph range from the southwest. It's a mixed bag of spring like conditions out there and wind, sun, and warm temperatures have taken their toll on the snow surface in most areas.Snow cover ranges from 3-4' deep in sheltered locations, with some sun and wind exposed slopes showing bare ground. It's currently 21 degrees on Abajo Peak and 26 at Buckboard Flat.


Winds have hammered the snow from all directions. Note cornices formed on both sides of the ridge.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche danger is mostly low in the Abajo/Blue Mountains. But remember that low danger doesn't mean no danger. When you are traveling in the mountains it's always important to have your avalanche glasses on and look for the following potential dangers:

Wind Slabs - You may still find an isolated hard wind slab on the lee side of a ridge crest or terrain feature such as a sub ridge or gully wall in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Keep an eye out for areas that feel stiff and hollow like a drum.

Wet Slides - I've not noticed any signs of wet slide instability for more than a week, even under days with warm sunny skies. But as the day heats up, be alert to signs off instability such as roller balls, pinwheels, or sloppy snow.

Persistent/Deep Slabs - I've been digging holes and performing stability tests for two weeks and am finding very strong snow or dormant weak layers, and people have been going into pretty extreme terrain with impunity. But a careful analysis is still important before jumping into any steep, extreme terrain with a northerly aspect.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description
weather

Today will be a beautiful day in the mountains ahead of a weak system that will put us under cloudy skies with a sligh chance of snow Monday and Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday.

Today

Sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Monday

A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Windy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming north northwest 25 to 35 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

Monday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Blustery, with a north northwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph becoming southeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
general announcements

Let me know what you are seeing down there by posting an observation here.  You can also call me on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.