Toured Raymond today (Tuesday Jan 7) and Gobblers yesterday (Monday Jan 6) from Porter Fork.

Most locations have a few inches of new snow from the Sunday storm on top of wind crust from the previous storm, which featured strong northwest winds.

Today, Tues 1/7 I started w a run in the northfacing path Paradise then gained the Raymond shoulder for a run in the glade then exited Paradise. Isolated a column in the Paradise start zone which failed on the graupel layer Greg Gagne identified in his ob from West Porter, 12/18/2019. This is a layer I’m tracking but not particularly concerned about. The pack is basically solid in northfacing Porter Fork, but this layer could be active in an extreme loading event—this is one reason I selected poor snowpack structure. If we get 30 inches over a few days with this next storm cycle it might play.

Wind crust on Gobblers requires a blocky stance for turns. This crust is a pronounced failure plane in a heavy loading event, possibly producing 5 or 10 year avalanches, if snow comes in on the high end with extended high PI and strong wind. This is another reason I selected poor snowpack structure.

Winds gusted a bit around 2:30. Photo is Raymond shoulder, southeast winds blowing up from Mill A basin. Could be an issue in select locations, steep rocky areas.

The hazard of moderate seems right for today on the steep south and east. I was out every day last week and the northwest winds were howling on the ridges so I am leery of steep south and east for the time being. Northfacing Porter Fork hazard seems low.

NWS forecast for upper Porter Fork is light wind w an inch or two in the afternoon. If this verifies northfacing hazard will be low. Going w moderate on south and east just because my bones are still chilled from last week’s northwest wind.