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Observation: Grizzly Gulch

Observation Date
1/11/2018
Observer Name
Luke
Region
Salt Lake » Little Cottonwood Canyon » Grizzly Gulch
Location Name or Route
Twin Lakes Pass/Grizzly Gulch
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Precipitation
Light Snowfall
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Wind Crust
Snow Characteristics Comments
Not really any new snow from yesterday, rode really well though. Was thinking maybe these kind of snow conditions where a fond memory from last year.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Heavy Snowfall
Wind Loading
Collapsing
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Mostly just wanted to check out the variability or the snow structure, it varies widely within meters. Look at comments on ECT test below.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments
At 9500' and up the snowpack doesn't visually look too bad until the ground layer, but it fails at numerous layers anyway. From what we noticed it's really unpredictable, making it that much more dangerous. Just because your buddy, or a hundred other people skied a slope doesn't mean it won't rip out on you.
Comments
Dug a pit that had some wind loading (160 cm deep), performed a shovel shear and two ECT's. Shovel shear failed around 85 on the layer probably triggered most of the slides from yesterday, first ECT failed at 25, second did not fail but pulled at the ground with light shovel push from the back. Not encouraging for gathering data to predict what will fail at any time. Below are pics of the first ECT failure. I'm rating tomorrow considerable but the consequences of being caught in a slide right now should be sobering.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
High
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable