Observation: Horse Creek Chutes

Observation Date

2/2/2026

Observer Name

Trenbeath, Garcia

Region

Moab » Horse Creek Chutes

Location Name or Route

Horse Creek Chutes

Weather

Sky

Broken

Wind Direction

Northwest

Wind Speed

Light

Weather Comments

Another too warm day. High of 26°F at 11,700', 39°F at Geyser Pass TH (9600'). Mostly cloudy skies in the morning gradually cleared throughout the day.

Snow Characteristics

Snow Surface Conditions

Dense Loose

Faceted Loose

Wind Crust

Melt-Freeze Crust

Damp

Snow Characteristics Comments

Mixed bag conditions as you would expect from the dry, warm, and windy weather. Southerlies are again melting out. Lots of wind damage and exposed rocks in the alpine. Good turning and riding can be found in "recycled powder" (faceted snow) on sheltered shady aspects near treeline and below.

Thin, wind blasted conditions in upper Horse Creek.

Red Flags

Poor Snowpack Structure

Red Flags Comments

The snowpack on shady aspects is mostly faceted through and will provide a horrible foundation for a future snow load. Human triggered loose, dry, "facet-lanches" are likely on all steep, northerly aspects near treeline and below.

Avalanche Problem #1

Problem

Persistent Weak Layer

Trend

Decreasing Danger

Problem #1 Comments

No slab was found near treeline and below where the snowpack is entirely faceted through. As such, persistent weak layer problems are primarily located on northerly aspects above treeline where old hard slabs of wind drifted snow sit over top of underlying facets. The primary layer of concern at this point is a layer of facets that formed before the January 23 storm of 8"-10". On January 24, strong winds built hard wind slabs in the alpine producing several natural avalanches about 2' deep that likely failed on this layer.

Looking ahead, any significant snow load, especially if combined with wind, will have the potential to produce large avalanches breaking below the Christmas rain crust and taking out the entire season's snowpack.

Snow Profile

Aspect

Northeast

Elevation

11,300'

Slope Angle

27°

Comments

In our travels today we found generally low danger for slab avalanches near treeline and below on northerly aspects. It's worth noting however that the weak and faceted snowpack is primed for loose, dry avalanches in steep terrain. In fact, they are all but certain. The size of the slope will determine how much snow gets entrained, and situational awareness is critical.

Today's Observed Danger Rating

Moderate

Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating

Moderate

Coordinates

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