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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 25, 2024
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remains on steep slopes facing W-N-E-SE. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer 2' deep or more are LIKELY. On steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects near treeline and above, avalanches could break up to 6' deep.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing SW-S. Signs of instability will be less obvious on these aspects, but human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain POSSIBLE.

This persistent weak layer problem will be with us for some time. Exercise patience and avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road was plowed on Monday. Look for accumulating snow on a packed snow surface by this afternoon. AWD recommended.
Grooming: Matt rolled out Gold Basin through Geyser Pass on Tuesday. Expect fresh snow on trails today.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 1" 72 Hour Snow 2" Season Total Snow 91" Base Depth at Gold Basin 41"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 5-10 Temp 19˚ F

Weather
A long range trough dropping down from the Pacific Northwest will move through the Four Corners region bringing cloudy skies and snow to our area through Friday morning. 4" seem likely by nightfall with another 4" or so falling tonight. We'll see a slight increase in SW winds today with speeds averaging 10-15 mph along ridge tops. High temps will be in the upper 20's. Look for lingering showers Friday morning with winds shifting to the NW following the passage of the storm. Skies should begin to clear later in the day. This looks to be our last shot of snow for awhile as high pressure builds over the region.
General Conditions
The skiing and riding remains as good as it's been all year. Winds have been remarkably calm for the last several days and the sun has largely stayed behind the clouds. Most aspects offer great riding conditions in creamy, medium density powder. Only a few of the most southerly aspects have developed a crust. The snowpack is starting to feel supportive which has really helped riding conditions, but step off your skis or sled, and you still punch through almost to the ground, especially on northerly aspects. What this means is that a cohesive slab exists on top of very weak, faceted snow underneath. Throughout our travels this week, Dave and I continued to experience collapsing of the snowpack on a variety of aspects and elevations. This indicates that the poor structure is widespread, and that it remains sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep are likely on steep slopes facing W-N-E-SE. On steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects dangerous, unsurvivable avalanches up to 6' deep are possible.
Check out the video below Dave made of his tour on Tuesday up Noriega's Ridge where he continued to find very weak snow.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Incremental loading continues to stress the persistent weak layer in our snowpack keeping us in a perpetually dangerous state. Collapsing continues to be widespread on a variety of aspects and elevations. The suspect weak layer is buried about 2 feet below the snow surface, and is easily observed in snow pits. Human triggered avalanches up to 2 feet deep remain likely. Above treeline, leeward slopes hold deep hard slabs of previously wind-drifted snow and dangerous avalanches can break 2-6 feet deep.
The persistent weak layer problem is not limited to the shady slopes. Southerly aspects have poor snowpack structure and yesterday, Dave and I got very reactive test results on a SE aspect at 11,000' (see video below). The strategy continues to be avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all aspects.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.