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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 15, 2024
Human triggered avalanches are still possible. A layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow is buried under a 1'-2' thick slab that formed during storm events over the past 10 days. The danger is greatest on steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects, but all wind driftd slope should be considered suspect. Slabs of wind drifted snow form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and subridges. They are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
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Weather and Snow
The Abajo Mountains picked up more than 2' of snow over the past 10 days. The underlying snowpack is very weak consisting of loose, sugary, faceted snow. The most recent storm snow has now settled into a cohesive slab over top of the weak, sugary snow underneath creating the perfect recipe for human triggered avalanches. The danger is greatest on steep, northerly facing slopes and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. Shifting strong winds over the past several days have also created unstable slabs of wind drifted snow. Wind slabs form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and subridges. They are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Visting ski tourer Chase Wesley sent in this observation from the old ski hill on Sunday. He noted a poor snowpack structure and red flag signs of instability such as cracking and whumphing. These red flags indicate a slab collapsing on a weak layer under the weight of a person. This is exactly how avalanches occurr.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.