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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, January 2, 2023
Dangerous Avalanche Conditions exist. Avoid traveling on or underneath slopes over 30 degrees.

The avalanche danger remains HIGH. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. On northwest through easterly facing aspects, avalanches may step down into older facets, leading to large and destructive avalanches.

Yesterday ski area and road operations reported large avalanches 4-6' deep and up to 600' wide running on the buried November facets. These avalanches would be unsurvivable.
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Avalanche Warning
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS CONTINUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY 6AM MST TO TUESDAY 6AM MST...
* WHAT...The avalanche danger is HIGH across northern, central, southeast, and southwest Utah.
* WHERE...For most mountains in Utah and southeast Idaho, including the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, Manti-Skyline, Fish Lake Region, La Sal and Abajo Mountains of Southeastern Utah, Pavant Range, Tushar Range, and Cedar City area mountains.
* WHEN...In effect from 6AM MST this morning to 6AM MST Tuesday
* IMPACTS...Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on many slopes and may be triggered at a distance. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Weather and Snow
Under overcast skies most locations are reporting 3-5" of low density snow. Trailhead temperatures are in the low 20's F while temperatures at 8,000' weather stations are in the high teens F. Calm to light winds blowing from the northwest.
Today, continued light snowfall with 2-5" of snow expected with temperatures 22-29 F. Winds at the 9000' ridgelines will blow east-northeast 15 gusting to 20 MPH. Winds at the 11,000' ridgelines will blow southeast 20 gusting to 25 MPH Winds are forecasted to shift to the north and northwest this afternoon.
Storm totals thus far:
  • Provo mountains: 42" Snow/8.6" SWE
  • Ogden mountains: 23-32"Snow/2.7-4" SWE
  • Upper Cottonwoods: 32"-43" Snow/3.25-4.6" SWE
  • Park City: 27-39"Snow /3.5" SWE
Snow stakes sit at 100-115" in the Cottonwoods and 70-80" along the PC ridge. 70-80" in Ogden, 75-85" in Provo.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday there were reports of natural and explosive triggered avalanches on all aspects from ski area and highway operations throughout the state. Some of these avalanches were 4-6' deep and 600' wide running over 4000' vertical feet.

Thanks to UDOT Provo for sharing their avalanche observations from yesterday. These avalanches ran both naturally and with explosives.

This wet loose avalanche in American Fork Canyon is only something we would expect to see if temperatures rise above freezing at the lower elevations today.
Check out our observations page for the most recent information.
We will continue to assess how the rain may have impacted the PWL at the lower elevations. Any observations are appreciated. Submit observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fluctuating temperatures and wind drifting throughout the storm have created a number of layers within the new snow where an avalanche could be initiated. Once a soft slab avalanche of new snow starts it could step down to the November persistent weak layer creating a much larger avalanche. You may not see signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing in the new snow. Avoid getting lured onto steeper slope than you had planned. The new snow alone is deep enough to bury or injure a person that is caught in an avalanche.

Today, I would be giving the new snow layers time to bond and the deeper weak layers time to heal. There is great riding to be had on lower angle terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This is a significant loading event for our buried weak layers from November. These avalanches will be most problematic on northwest to easterly facing aspects at all elevations, but we cannot rule out the other aspects at this time.

These are unsurvivable avalanches. These slopes may not give you warning signs such as cracking and collapsing. The Reynolds slide stands out to me as an early indicator of other steep slopes with a buried PWL and I would correlate this the Provo area mountains where I would expect that the same style of avalanche occurred at higher elevations during the storm. I will be giving these slopes some time to adjust to the new snow. Today, I would not travel on steep slopes where the PWL could be present.
General Announcements
Help support the UAC while doing your Holiday Shopping. The UAC's Holiday Silent Auction closes tonight at 8:00 PM MT. Take a look and get your last minute bids in HERE.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.