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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, December 15, 2022
Light, fluffy, new snow isn't affecting the avalanche danger. Underneath the blower pow, strong snow rests on weak snow... creating deceptively dangerous avalanche conditions-
Today, you'll continue finding CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in mid and upper elevation terrain, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass in the wind zone at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches breaking to weak, sugary, midpack snow are LIKELY. Lower elevation shady slopes with similar layering offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
LOW avalanche danger is found on low and mid elevation south facing slopes and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Wind sheltered terrain with no overhead hazard (meaning, no steep slopes above or adjacent to where I'm traveling) is the hot ticket. I've been finding excellent riding conditions and fun meadow skipping on mellow, wind sheltered slopes with no overhead hazard . Remember, don't get too throttle happy because it's still low tide and there's plenty of reef barely hidden underneath our recent storms. With a significant danger of hitting rocks, stumps, and other obstacles, you'll wanna tone it down today and don't let a buried treasure ruin your season.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We have dodged a few bullets with two close calls in the backcountry Tuesday and Wednesday. One in Pink Pine the other in Neff's Canyon.
Huge thanks all our local heroes, the hard working gals and guys who have given so much of themselves the past few days and nights to save the lives of two very lucky backcountry riders. I am honored to know you and we are all grateful for your dedication and service!
Both Mirror Lake Highway and Wolf Creek Pass are closed for the season
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A band of moisture is just starting to creep towards the Uinta's and light snow falls from a thick blanket of clouds. It's crisp, with temperatures registering in the teens and single digits. Along the high ridges, northwest winds blowing just 5-15 mph hardly spin mountaintop anemometers, but that equates to a finger numbing wind chill registering to -15 degrees. But I bet you quickly forget the cold because no matter how you cut it, the snow is light, it's deep, and yes... it's over-the-hood and over-the head :)
Forecast- A trailing wave of moisture delivers unsettled weather this morning and a couple inches of snow stack up before clearing skies slide into the region late in the day. West and northwest winds bump into the 20's and 30's and high temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning. With clear skies overhead, overnight lows crater into negative territory.
Futurecast- Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and cold temperatures are on tap for the weekend.
This weeks storm totals register close to 20" of snow with just about 1.3" of H2O. In other words... blower pow!
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Ted got some eyes on Tuesday's Double Hill slide that was remotely triggered by a crew of riders low on the slope. Ted is one avy-savvy cat and forecaster extraordinaire, who knows the Uinta's like no one else. His very informative writeup and keen snow sense is found HERE.
Recent avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mark and Micheal J stomped around the Hoyt Peak environs yesterday and their snowpit tests continue to reveal the weak, sugary, and reactive persistent weak layer (PWL) in the mid portion of our snowpack.
The good-
Prior to last Sunday nights storm, weak, sugary faceted snow buried in the mid portion of our snowpack was just getting comfortable in its own skin, adjusting to last weeks big storm. And the lack of widespread avalanche activity suggests a slow turn towards stability... good news.
The bad-
But, southerly winds cranked into the 60's and 70's last weekend, not only changing the landscape, but also adding an additional layer of strong snow to our pre-existing snowpack. Problem is... all that strong snow rests on weak, sugary, midpack snow (our problem child, the persistent weak layer or PWL) which formed during the mid November drought.
The potentially ugly-
Our recent round of ultra-blower pow isn't going to wake up the avalanche dragon, but pull back the curtain and a more nefarious setup is revealed... and here's what's going on. Last weekends wind formed a dense, strong slab, but that solid layer rests on weaker snow formed during the mid November dry-spell. Now here's where it gets tricky, this setup gives us a false sense of snow stability, because it feels bomber and good to go underneath our skis, board, or sled. In fact, this combo often lures us well out onto steep slopes before weak layers fail, allowing avalanches to break well above us and the whole roof crashes down. So yes, I'm thinking not only about the snow I'm riding in, but also the snow I'm riding on. Here's where the rubber hits the road and what makes things tricky right now... any avalanche that fails near the midpack weakness (PWL), is gonna break deep and wide and it's gonna be dangerous.
Unless you take your shovel out, dig down and investigate a bit, you can easily get lulled into a false sense of snow stability because the snowpack has gained a substantial amount of buoyancy. Yep, that pack's got a whole lotta body... baby :)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak (11,186') depicts the remarkably calm winds along the high peaks.
Winds are calm now, but any minor bump will easily form fresh, yet shallow drifts, sensitive to our additional weight. Here's where it gets tricky... once initiated, a seemingly harmless shallow drift can get quickly out of hand if it breaks to older, weaker, midpack snow. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, I'd also be on the look out for drifting around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, you'll wanna look for and avoid any fat looking rounded pillow of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Hot ticket and where to ride-
Easily managed and avoided with terrain choices... lose the wind, you lose the problem, and score great riding conditions to boot. Done, done, and done :)
Additional Information
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:58 on Thursday December 15th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Friday December 16th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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