Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Southerly winds have been blowing in the 20-30 mph range since yesterday morning with gusts as high as 50 mph along the highest ridge tops. Clouds began spreading over the region last night as a short wave trough on a northwest flow clips by to the north. Today we should see partly sunny skies, blustery westerly winds, and highs in the low 20's. Northwest flow brings another system to the north on Wednesday.

Observers continue to report widespread, deep, and very large natural avalanches on northerly aspects from Friday's storm event. Dave Garcia and Nate Ament sent in this observation from a trip to the North Group yesterday. On Sunday, Brian Murdock and I were able to get a close up look at this avalanche off the Laurel Ridge into Horse Creek that was 4.5' deep and 1500' wide. This was a hard slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack, the result of early season, mid-October snow. This persistent weak layer had become largely non-reactive through the last two weeks of December, but 22" of snow at nearly 2.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in 16 hours proved to be too much of a load. The recent load has provided quite a thump, and as the dust settles so to speak, we should see a trend towards greater stability. With the magnitude of these avalanches, we need to give things some time however. It is still possible if not likely to trigger one of these monsters. Likely trigger points include shallow, rocky areas, along slope margins, or on steep convexities.

Local AIARE instructor and guide Evan Clapper was up yesterday and he observed continuous wind loading on to northerly aspects above treeline. He also noted the continued but lessening potential for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche and for now he is sticking with the mantra "Keep it Mellow." Solid advice.