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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, February 15, 2019
Heavy snowfall accompanied by strong winds have created dangerous conditions. The avalanche danger is HIGH on steep upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E, and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are certain in these areas. On most other mid and upper elevation terrain the danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely. The new snow load has also increased the danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried, persistent weak layer. This problem is greatest on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. Most low elevation terrain has a MODERATE danger. Backcountry travelers today need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. Stay off of, and out from under steep, avalanche prone terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Grand County will be plowing the road this morning and the gate will be locked until they are finished.
Weather and Snow
Yesterday's two part storm dropped 15" of dense, heavy snow in Gold Basin with about 2" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). This brings us up to about 2' of snow since Monday, and close to 3" of SWE, and it's not quite over yet! Winds were relatively well behaved compared to the last week, averaging 20 mph along ridge tops with gusts into the 30's and occasionally reaching 40 mph. Today we'll see partly cloudy skies, a chance of scattered snow showers, and breezy SW ridge top winds averaging 15-20 mph with gusts to 30. High temps will be in the low to mid 20's. The next, colder system will move in around midnight tonight and linger into tomorrow. It looks to favor points north but we could see another 3"-5". More unsettled weather after that.
In our travels yesterday we encountered moist conditions reminiscent of the Pacific Northwest. The new snow was forming a dense, cohesive, and inverted slab, otherwise known as upside down conditions. A brief break in the weather occurred through mid morning, and by mid afternoon heavy snowfall had begun. Charlie Ramser and Maggie Nielsen were also out and about and sent in this observation. They also included a nice pit profile.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow continues to be our primary concern. The most recent snow has blown into deep, dense drifts along upper elevation ridge crests, primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. In addition, strong southerly winds have blown for more than a week drifting snow on to slopes facing W-N-SE, and we now have new wind slabs on top of old. Most of the older slabs have gained strength, but fresh drifts will continue to form in the most recent snow. Be alert to recent deposits of wind drifted snow on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Due to the intense winds, cross-loading will also be a factor so beware of the sides of gully walls and down slope sub ridges. Fresh drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and they may sound, and feel hollow underneath. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dense, wet, and wind driven snow has formed an inverted, cohesive slab within the new snow on all aspects. The peak of instability within the new occurred overnight, but it's going to need another day or two to fully settle out. Avalanches within the new snow will be likely today on all aspects on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The added snow load will be a good test for buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Our primary layer of concern continues to be the early December snow that has turned into weak, sugary facets on top of the October crust. Where the snowpack is deepest, this layer is mostly non-reactive. Where the pack is shallow and weak, alarming results occasionally pop up. At this point, I'm going to assume that deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches, failing on a buried persistent weak layer are still possible.
Dave Garcia's pit profile from Wednesday. Our most problematic layer continues to be December facets at around 70 cms. For more details see his observation.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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