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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Friday morning, February 1, 2019
Most terrain has an overall LOW danger. Isolated areas of MODERATE danger exist for triggering deeper avalanches into old snow layering. Wet loose sluffs will become active earlier today. Remember that even a small avalanche can have severe consequences in unforgiving terrain.
The danger will be on the rise over the next several days.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The report from last Friday's avalanche accident in the La Sals is finished and can be found HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the family and friends affected by this accident.
New blog post - I AM Dangerous (link). This is a conversation/collaboration with the writer Molly Absolon in the Tetons. Thanks Molly.
Weather and Snow
Calm before the storm.
Skies are mostly clear this morning but the warming mountain temperatures and backing winds are a portent of things to come. Temps are in the mid to upper 20s up high and in the teens in the basins and at the trailheads. The west-northwest winds slowly shifted to the southwest overnight and are blowing 10mph with gusts to 15. Skiing and riding conditions remain good with the weakening snow surfaces and surface hoar in the wind and sun sheltered terrain. We'll want the next 36 hours of sun, wind, clouds, and temperatures to decay, degrade, or demolish these developing surface weaknesses prior to the storm(s). As they say, today's snow surfaces may be tomorrow's buried weak layer. (example: Carey Pierce pic below)
Big Picture - a series of wet, warm and windy storms is approaching from the west/southwest and the avalanche danger will be in sharp lockstep with each pulse of the storm. It'll be time to step back in our terrain selection for a little while.
Recent Avalanches
None. We continue to find large natural avalanches from during or just after the blockbuster weather event on the 17th and again on the 21st. The largest natural noted on the western flank of Timpanogos but others noted in the Cascade and Mill Canyon Peak areas. (pc: UDOT Provo Canyon)
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
In isolated areas, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche into older snow layering. Poor to fair structure (weak snow and/or weak snow/crust layering) is present around the compass at most aspects and elevations, particularly above about 8000'. It is recommended to approach steep rocky slopes with caution and stop to gauge the localized stability with various snow tests. Collapsing and cracking may not be present. Many slopes have avalanches and filled back in, adding to the high levels of spatial variability across the southern ramparts of the Wasatch Range (including the Wasatch back).
All Provo observations can be found here.
Additional Information
A powerful series of storms are on the doorstep. We'll see increasing clouds and southerly winds tonight ahead of a long and complicated storm...that lasts perhaps until late Wednesday. The early part of the storm moves in on a southwesterly flow tomorrow with perhaps an initial rain/snow line to 7500'. Strong southwest winds for much of the period. Snow should begin in earnest in the wee hours Sunday morning with continued significant snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. The flow looks to remain southwesterly to westerly until later in the storm. Temps drop to the low single digits Wed/Thurs when the coldest air arrives. Storm totals? Uncertain, but will throw out 2'+ by late Wednesday for areas favored by a southwest flow (Sundance, Park City, Brighton, Ogden. Possibly more. At this point - and the devil's details continue to change - the Ogden area mountains are likely to get crushed.
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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