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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 31, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-SE where human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain likely. Most other terrain offers MODERATE danger with the possibility for triggering an old, hard wind slab in exposed terrain. Suspect slopes that have a smooth rounded appearance, or that feel hollow underneath. Stick to low angle, wind sheltered terrain for the best, and safest conditions.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register. Much thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course! Please visit them for all of your winter backcountry needs.
Weather and Snow
Skies are clear, WNW winds are light, and 10,000' temps are in the low teens. It's going to he another gorgeous day in the mountains with continued sunny skies, light westerly winds, and high temps in the mid to high 20's. Tomorrow should be the last completely sunny day as series of Pacific troughs are lining up out there. The first, and weakest system should move into the area on Saturday bringing only a chance if showers, with two more promising systems following. For now, get out and enjoy the sunshine!
The snow surface is getting tired and worn, but observers are still reporting finding areas of soft snow. Brian Hays was out earlier in the week, and found good conditions on a sheltered, low angle, NE aspect, and Dave Garcia, and Nate Ament were up on Mann's Peak yesterday enjoying beautiful views and finding soft snow, even on a SW facing slope. Check out their observations here.
Base depth in Gold Basin: 58"
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Mann's Peak, and Mount Tomasaki, with the San Juan Mountains in the distance. Dave Garcia photo.
Recent Avalanches
I've completed the final report on Friday's fatal avalanche. Our deepest sympathies continue to go out to the family and friends of local Monticello resident, Scott Pehrson Jr. who was killed in the accident. Much thanks to San Juan, and Grand County Search and Rescues, Classic Air Medical and the Utah Department of Public Safety, Snowbird, Wasatch Powder Bird Guides, and professional dog teams from Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Alta, and Park City ski patrols.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Time and warmer temperatures are helping to strengthen the snowpack, but persistent weak layers are called that because they persist! Our layer of concern is the early December snow that has turned to weak, sugary facets. Since Christmas Eve, regular storms have now piled more than 4' of snow on top of this layer. Add wind drifting, and we've seen avalanches up to 8' deep. The danger is greatest on steep, upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-E, and last Friday's fatal avalanche shows how real the danger is.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate to strong winds over the past week have blown and drifted snow forming deep, hard wind slabs in exposed terrain. They will be stiff and stubborn, and mostly welded into place, but if they break, they could fail several feet deep. Due to the intensity of the winds, and high quantity of snow available for transport, drifting has occurred on all aspects. Expect to find drifts on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges, and rock outcroppings. Avoid areas that have a smooth, rounded appearance, or that feel hollow underneath.
Additional Information
Grooming: Trails are groomed and will be in excellent condition this morning!
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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