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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 29, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-SE where human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain likely. Most other terrain offers MODERATE danger with the possibility for triggering an old, hard wind slab in exposed terrain. Suspect slopes that have a smooth rounded appearance, or that feel hollow underneeath. Stick to low angle, wind sheltered terrain for the best, and safest conditions.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register. Much thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course! Please visit them for all of your winter backcountry needs.
Weather and Snow
Little change on the weather front. Something is building on the horizon with a storm headed our way for the weekend. I'll keep you posted.
In the words of observer Dave Garcia, "It's pretty tough out there right now. Most slopes are wind and sun damaged or too dangerous!" Some soft snow can still be found in sheltered locations but you have to look harder to find it.
Base depth in Gold Basin: 60"
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
I've completed the final report on Friday's fatal avalanche. Our deepest sympathies continue to go out to the family and friends of local Monticello resident, Scott Pehrson Jr. who was killed in the accident. Much thanks to San Juan, and Grand County Search and Rescues, Classic Air Medical and the Utah Department of Public Safety, Snowbird, Wasatch Powder Bird Guides, and professional dog teams from Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Alta, and Park City ski patrols.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Time and warmer temperatures are helping to strengthen the snowpack, but persistent weak layers are called that because they persist! Our layer of concern is the early December snow that has turned to weak, sugary facets. Since Christmas Eve, regular storms have now piled more than 4' of snow on top of this layer. Add wind drifting, and we've seen avalanches up to 8' deep. The danger is greatest on steep, upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-E, and last Friday's fatal avalanche shows how real the danger is.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate to strong winds over the past week have blown and drifted snow forming deep, hard wind slabs in exposed terrain. They will be stiff and stubborn, and mostly welded into place, but if they break, they could fail several feet deep. Due to the intensity of the winds, and high quantity of snow available for transport, drifting has occurred on all aspects. Expect to find drifts on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges, and rock outcroppings. Avoid areas that have a smooth, rounded appearance, or that feel hollow underneath.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.