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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Saturday morning, January 9, 2016

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on mid to upper elevation slopes (above 8000 feet). The main thing to look for is the slightest evidence of wind drifted snow even though winds have been mostly calm. The presence of weak facets under the new snow means that slopes unaffected by the wind may also produce soft slab avalanches.

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Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow

This morning temperatures are in the mid teens F with calm, westerly winds blowing 5 mph gusting to 10 mph. One site at 6700 ft above Deer Creek Reservoir had winds blowing 10-15 mph from the SW overnight but had calmed this morning. Since yesterday light snowfall has added up to an inch at most. Recent snow and calm winds have made great skiing and riding conditions.

Recent Avalanches

Recent avalanche activity happened Thursday and Friday involving the new snow. A combination of a poor bond between the new and old snow and slight winds produced both natural and human triggered avalanches. Many were soft slabs about 1-1.5 feet deep. A few notable ones include:

  • A natural avalanche in upper Days Fork 1 ft deep by 100 ft wide.
  • An intentional skier triggered avalanche in upper Cardiff Fork (LSB) 1 ft deep by 50 ft wide
  • A natural avalanche between Mt Wolverine and Mt Millicent about 1.5 ft deep and 60 ft wide on a slope (Stupid Chute) that previously avalanched around Christmas
  • Natural avalanches occurred in Provo Canyon on Thursday. One occurred at 9800 ft and was 1 ft deep and 100 ft wide.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Avalanches today will mostly involve the new snow and be about a foot deep. There are several reasons we can trigger avalanches today.

  1. Winds haven’t created widespread stiff wind slabs, but they have transported just enough new snow in some places to get a soft slab avalanche.
  2. On some slopes the old snow surface was faceted and the new snow may fracture on these facets. Good places to find this faceted snow are slopes shaded from the sun or slopes that avalanche around Christmas. These slopes broke at the ground, then had a very shallow snowpack during very cold weather. Thin snow + cold weather = faceted snow. New snow from Thursday has formed a very soft slab on top of these facets. Read a great discussion about this issue here.

The new snow should be less sensitive than it was on Thursday and Friday, but with facets underneath the new snow in many places, triggering a slide today remains definitely possible. Sluffing should also be expected on steep slopes where the new snow hasn’t formed a slab yet.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Our discussion about deep slab avalanches sounds like a broken record, but this problem is worth mentioning because it can create a very large avalanche. In 2007, I was caught in a deep slab avalanche 4-6 feet deep on a high elevation, north facing slope. It happened in April and there hadn’t been any deep slab avalanches in weeks but there was a layer of facets near the ground that persisted and remained weak.

Many slopes avalanched around Christmas and now may produce an avalanche about a foot deep. Ones that didn’t avalanche especially on high elevation slopes facing NW through N through E, remain suspect and are worth avoiding, especially rocky slopes that contain many trigger points near buried rocks.

Additional Information

Today a NW flow will keep some clouds over the area, though conditions should dry and skies should become clearer through the day. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the upper 20s F. Winds will blow westerly about 10 mph.

General Announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.

To get help in an emergency (to launch a rescue) in the Wasatch, call 911. Be prepared to give your GPS coordinates or the run name. Dispatchers have a copy of the Wasatch Backcountry Ski map.

Backcountry Emergencies. It outlines your step-by-step method in the event of a winter backcountry incident.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry, but no one is hurt and you do not need assistance, please notify the nearest ski area dispatch to avoid a needless response by rescue teams. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort/PCMR Dispatch (435)615-1911

Snowbasin Resort Dispatch (801-620-1017), Powder Mountain Dispatch (801-745-3772 x 123).

Sundance Dispatch (801-223-4150)

EMAIL ADVISORY If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you will need to subscribe here.​

DAWN PATROL Hotline updated daily by 5-530am - 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

UDOT canyon closures: LINK TO UDOT, or on Twitter, follow @UDOTavy, @CanyonAlerts or @AltaCentral

Utah Avalanche Center mobile app - Get your advisory on your iPhone along with great navigation and rescue tools.

Powderbird Helicopter Skiing - Blog/itinerary for the day

Lost or Found something in the backcountry? - http://nolofo.com/

Ski Utah mobile snow updates

To those skinning uphill at resorts: it is your responsibility to know the resort policy on uphill travel. You can see the uphill travel policy for each resort here. IMPORTANT: Before skinning or hiking at a resort under new snow conditions, check in with Ski Patrol. Resorts can restrict or cut off access if incompatible with control and grooming operations.

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you shop from Backcountry.com or REI: Click this link for Backcountry.com or this link to REI, shop, and they will donate a percent of your purchase price to the UAC. Both offer free shipping (with some conditions) so this costs you nothing!

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on ebay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your ebay account here and click on ebay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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