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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, February 28, 2021
Above treeline, especially in the wind zone, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY, particularly on steep, wind drifted slopes and especially in terrain with an easterly component to its aspect. Remember- any avalanche that breaks to weak layers of snow near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurvivable slide.
Near treeline, the avalanche danger is MODERATE and large, human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE but the chances are diminishing.
Below treeline the avalanche danger is LOW and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY. Low danger does not mean "no danger". Avalanches can still happen which is why we always carry avalanche rescue gear and expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain. To avoid avalanches completely, take advantage of all the terrain in the Uintas that is less than 30 degrees in steepness where avalanches don't happen.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Please watch this video from last Saturday's fatal avalanche near Preston, ID which includes video footage from the time of the accident. Read the preliminary report HERE.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
A few lingering snow showers hover over the region, but clouds are thinning, inviting a brilliant, bright moon to cast an intriguing light on our mountains. Temperatures cratered overnight and currently register in negative territory across the board. Along the high ridges, northwest winds blow 10-15 mph, creating wind chill factors to -23 degrees... ouch. Friday nights storm was a good refresh for the range, especially for the North Slope, delivering a solid 8" of low density snow. Storm totals are closer to half that amount the further south of Trial Lake you travel. In either case, the riding and turning conditions are quite good, especially in wind sheltered, mid elevation terrain.
Forecast-
It'll be a stunning day in the mountains with sunny skies, light northwesterly winds, and temperatures climbing into the low 20's.
Futurecast-
The heat turns on this week as high pressure builds. No storminess in sight.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
The last reported slides were some slabs of wind drifted snow seen on Thursday. Two larger slides happened on Tuesday in Upper Weber Canyon that Craig describes in the video below. The other large slide happened on Mt Marsell just north of Mirror Lake.
More obs, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Throughout the Uinta Mountains, there is a slab 2-5 feet thick resting on a persistent weak layer (PWL) of facets about a foot above the ground.... think strong snow on weak snow. The PWL exists on most slopes except those facing due south and southwest.
Avalanche conditions remain deceptively tricky and here's why-
First- it's low probability/high consequence. What we know is that if we do trigger a slide, it can break 2-5 feet deep and hundreds or even thousands of feet wide and it'll be unsurvivable. Unfortunately, we don't know the exact probability of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer but it has decreased somewhat since the big Valentines storm.
Second- with such a supportable slab on top of this weak layer, a slope may have many sets of tracks on it and still slide if someone hits a thin spot in the snowpack. You can guess where thin spots exist, but you never really know because they can be near a rock or bush hidden under the snow.
What to do? Unfortunately it's just a season with a dangerous snowpack. There's no way around that fact, and the key to longevity is avoiding all big, open slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Slopes above treeline, especially those with recent deposits of wind drifted snow are most dangerous. Triggering a slide on slopes near treeline remains possible.
Mark was in Smith-Moorehouse yesterday and found areas where the snowpack is deep and nearing five feet of settled snow, snowpit stability tests suggest a strengthening snowpack... and that's good news.
However, there's plenty of terrain, especially on the east side of the range, which remains unusually thin for this time of year and these are the zones that remain highly suspect. Ted's recent ob from Millcreek clearly illustrates the difference.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The image above clearly illustrates strong winds stripping snow from the windward side of the mountain and depositing in onto the leeward side.... that's where you'll find recent wind drifts.
Recent winds blew from every direction this week, most recently from the west and northwest, and there's no shortage of fresh snow available for transport. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, be on lookout for fresh drifts around terrain feature like chutes and gullies. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or feels hollow and sounds like a drum. And remember- once triggered, even a small wind drift can quickly get out of hand, especially if it crashes down the slope and breaks into deeper buried weak layers.
Lose the wind and you lose the problem... simply lose some elevation and steer towards wind sheltered terrain where you'll be rewarded with great riding and more predictable avalanche danger.
Additional Information
Yesterday, it was a pleasure to team up with the Utah Snowmobile Association, Summit County, and the Chalk Creek Riders Club for a morning of hands on avalanche training. A few of the crew pictured here, put a lot of time into spreading the avalanche gospel, which ultimately saves lives and we all deeply appreciate the efforts!
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Monday, March 1st.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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