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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, November 27, 2019
HEADS UP... EXPECT A RAPIDLY RISING AVALANCHE DANGER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS!
Avalanche avoidance is key and it's really quite easy.... simply stay off of and out from under steep wind drifted slopes.
For today, in the wind zone at mid and upper elevations, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. As today's storm evolves, natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches likely on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass, particularly those that harbor weak, pre-existing snow. Along the high ridgelines on the other side of the compass, pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger are found on steep south facing terrain, and human triggered avalanches are possible.
Lose a little elevation and there's less contiguous old snow. Mid elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass offers MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are possible on any steep, mid elevation slope with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Here's your exit strategy-
Because of the lack of old snow, you'll find LOW avalanche danger on mid and low elevation south facing terrain, where both natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Watch
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS CONTINUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.
* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM 6AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6AM MST THURSDAY MORNING.
* AFFECTED AREA...FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH RANGE, INCLUDING THE WESTERN UINTAS.
* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH WITH THE FORECAST SNOW AND WIND.
* REASON/IMPACTS...DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
*AVALANCHES MAY BE TRIGGERED FROM A DISTANCE OR FROM BENEATH STEEP SLOPES.
*ANY AVALANCHE TRIGGERED HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK DEEPER AND WIDER THAN YOU MIGHT EXPECT.... INSTANTLY RUINING YOUR DAY.
And remember-
JUST 'CAUSE YOU CAN SEE YOUR RIG PARKED BY THE SIDE OF THE ROAD NEAR BALD MOUNTAIN OR WOLF CREEK PASS DOESN'T NECESSARILY MAKE THE SLOPE YOU CHOOSE TO RIDE MORE SAFE
Special Announcements
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7
We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
As part of your early season tune-up, consider taking an avalanche class. We have lots of avalanche education classes listed already, from Know Before You Go to Companion Rescue to our Backcountry 101. Click on the Education menu on our webpage for a full list of classes from the UAC and other providers. Check out the Know Before You Go eLearning program for free, online, avalanche classes.
Please join me on Friday Dec. 13th at 6:30 for a free avalanche awareness presentation in partnership with Wasatch County SAR. It's guaranteed to be entertaining, informative, and I'll share safety tips that allow you to rip powder safely and come home to your families at the end of the day.... pretty good deal... huh?
Weather and Snow
Like a cross-fire hurricane, the big Thanksgiving storm is tightly wound up, poised to slam into the region later today. Ahead of this multi-day storm, southerly winds are already cranking in the 40's and 50's along the high ridges. Temperatures are a bit crisp, in the single digits and low teens. It's gonna be a little rugged along the ridges where windchill factors register deep into negative territory. Total snow depths now average just under two feet and travel is a bit more reasonable, but remember.... the Uinta's are made of huge boulders, so rock free roads and meadows are your safest bet.
Brian McInerney, our good friend and ace forecaster at the National Weather Service, brilliantly delivers the evolution of the upcoming storm in the video above.
Above is 24 hour weather data from Windy Peak (10,662') and Trial Lake (9,945')
Click here for more real time Uinta winds, temperatures, and snow depth.
I stomped around Wolf Creek Pass on Sunday and found there's hardly enough snow to recreate on just yet, but you can gently move around on rock free meadows and roads.
Meanwhile, Derek send it a great observation from the Bald Mountain zone and found more rock than snow. Click here for a trip report from that area.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanche activity to report
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There's two main avalanche issues today... a persistent weak layer of snow buried in our snowpack and fresh pockets of wind drifted snow that are developing as I type this forecast. I'll start off with the avalanche dragon that's most unpredictable and could instantly ruin my day... which is, the persistent weak layer now buried under yesterday's storm. So here's the setup-
Monday nights storm helped give us a few more options to move around on the snow, but in all reality, upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass is really the only game in town. The bad news with this terrain option is, these slopes are also the most dangerous because they harbor weak, shallow, old snow left over from early season storms. That fact is... we've got a fragile snowpack with potentially dangerous layering and today's storm is clearly the game changer.
Strong winds and dense, heavy, storm snow will form a cohesive piece of snow (slab) on top of a suspect snow structure. The problem with this combo is, it'll feel strong underneath our skis, board, or sled. However, we've gotta think not only about the snow we're traveling in, but also the snow we're traveling on and right now, we've got some junk in the trunk. Once triggered, even a small avalanche may break a bit deeper and wider than you might expect, failing on the mid portion of the pack, revealing obstacles hidden under the thin facade of our early season snowpack. Remember- any slide could easily result in a season ending injury if you get raked over stumps, rocks, or deadfall. So the best way to avoid unpredictable avalanche conditions is to avoid where it exists. We can still have a great day by playing in big open meadows and simply staying off of and out from under steep terrain facing the north half fo the compass.... easy :)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds were all over the map prior to, during, and after Monday's quick hitting system, whipping the light density snow into wind drifts that'll be sensitive to our additional weight. And now there's even more wind! While today's drifts are found on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and because of variable wind directions, they've also formed on nearly every quadrant of the compass and may have cross-loaded into chutes and gullies. You're best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or sounds hollow like a drum. In addition, look for and listen to clues like whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in the snow which are sure signs of unstable conditions.
I observed weak surface snow over the weekend, but now it's buried and hidden underneath Monday's storm snow. This makes for a tricky setup where we can trigger avalanches from a distance or even an adjacent slope.
Additional Information
Expect strong southerly winds today with averages in the 40's and 50's and gusts in the 80's along the high peaks, though they should diminish slightly as the day progresses. Temperatures rise into the 20's and snow should develop by about midday. 8"-12" of heavy, dense snow by tomorrow morning is a good bet.
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:30 AM Thursday Nov. 28th. Once the snow begins to fly in earnest, this forecast will be updated each day by 7:30 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.