Ted was in the Gold Hill zone yesterday and noted this large, natural slide on Double Hill. It's a couple days old, but mirrors exactly the kind of snow structure and terrain where we could still trigger a deep, scary avalanche today.

The weekend storm was a solid wallop to our snowpack... good snow, water, and wind. And while a few slopes throughout the range avalanched naturally, many more teeter in the balance just waiting for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. Personally, I'm moving with caution and intent by slowing down, gathering facts, and reminding myself even though we're into January, our snowpack is in it's infancy and barely comfortable in its own skin. Since i know persistent slabs are tricky, unmanageable avalanche dragons, instead of trying to outsmart the snowpack, I'm gonna use avalanche avoidance as my go-to tool. Steep, rocky slopes with a shallow snowpack is primetime suspect terrain I plan to steer clear of.

Here's the mind-warp... we can put 100 tracks on a slope without triggering a slide, but all the 101st rider needs to do is find a shallow spot in the snowpack, like around a bush or a rock, collapse the weak layer (whumpf), and now we're staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche.

Above, Chad and Al discuss the set-up they see out in the Mirror Lake Corridor near Reids Peak where a strong, dense slab sits above weak, early season, faceted snow that continues to show signs of life.

24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,662') illustrating yesterday's midday bump in wind velocity near the high peaks.

There's enough low density surface snow available to blow around and team up with increasing ridgetops winds, and that combo easily whips up a fresh round of drifts reactive to our additional weight. This avalanche dragon is straight-forward and I'm looking for and avoiding fat, rounded pillows of snow, especially on the leeward side of ridges, chutes, gully walls, and cut banks. In addition, I'm gonna steer clear of hard, dense drifts, especially if they sound hollow like a drum.

And finally, cornices are getting meaty, will be touchy today, and are gonna pack a punch. Give 'em plenty of room, and remember, a cornice tumbling down on the slope below can easily trigger a larger avalanche that gets quickly out of hand.