Recent snow, water, and wind are a trifecta wallop to our snowpack and many slopes teeter in the balance just waiting for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. The snowpack is hardly straight-forward and complicating matters... we may not see the biggest clue to unstable snow... recent avalanche activity. Since this is the first real test of our snowpacks strength, I'm treating this setup as guilty until proven otherwise. I'm moving with caution and intent by gathering facts and looking out for red flags like cracking or collapsing sounds. I'm also gonna remind myself that persistent slabs are tricky, unmanageable avalanches and instead of trying to outsmart the snowpack, I'm gonna use avalanche avoidance as my go-to tool.

Here's the mind-warp... we can put 100 tracks on a slope without triggering a slide, but all the 101st rider needs to do is find a shallow spot in the snowpack, like around a bush or a rock, collapse the weak layer (whumpf), and now we're staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche.

Above, Chad and Al discuss the set-up they see out in the Mirror Lake Corridor near Reids Peak where a strong, dense slab sits above weak, early season, faceted snow that continues to show signs of life.

24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak (11,186') clearly illustrating recent wind trends near the high peaks.

Fortunately, winds quickly died down yesterday morning as the second wave of storminess slid over the region. However, that coat of white paint is camouflaging dense drifts formed Sunday night and that'll add a tricky curve ball to today's avalanche equation. My greatest concern is where fresh, dense drifts sit atop old, faceted snow near the ground, and once triggered, will turn a relatively small and manageable avalanche into a deep, and potentially life-threatening slide.

I'm looking for and avoiding fat, rounded pillows of snow, especially on the leeward side of ridges, chutes, gully walls, and cut banks. Dense snow may feel supportable, but can sound hollow like a drum and that's a big clue to an upside-down snow structure. And finally, cornices are getting meaty, will be touchy today, and are gonna pack a punch. Give 'em plenty of room, and remember, a cornice tumbling down on the slope below can easily trigger a larger avalanche that gets quickly out of hand.