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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Thursday, January 18, 2024
The snow feels bomber under our skis, board, or sled... however, it's a deceptively dangerous setup that's giving us a false sense of stability and that can lure us into avalanche terrain. Once triggered, today's avalanches can fail on a persistent weak layer of snow now buried deep in our snowpack, resulting in a catastrophic slide.
HIGH avalanche danger is found on steep, upper elevation slopes and it's particularly sketchy on leeward slopes in the windzone at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches breaking to deeply buried weak layers are LIKELY in terrain facing the north half of the compass, and especially on slopes with an easterly component to its aspect. Note to self... if I trigger an avalanche it could result in a large and potentially unsurvivable slide.
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found near and above treeline on the south aspects and below treeline on shady slopes where human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE. In either case, a midpack weak layer remains suspect and is guilty until proven otherwise.
Lower elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass delivers MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep, wind drifted slopes.
Here's your exit strategy-
We need to continue steering clear of terrain with overhead hazard and that means... avoid being on, under, or near all avalanche terrain where we could potentially pull the rug out from underneath and crash the roof down on top ourselves.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Thanks to everyone who took time out of their busy day to join me for last nights State of the Snowpack prezo. Y'all brought a great vibe, a beautiful energy, and an awesome community spirit. Let's keep it rollin', keep it tight, and keep it low angle while the snowpack figures out how to get comfortable in its own skin :)
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- On the tail end of yesterday's little storm, light snow showers linger over the region and clouds are just beginning to thin at the turn of the new day. Awaiting your arrival is an even coat of white paint across the range... 8"-10" of new snow with an inch of water seems like the norm in mid and upper elevation terrain. Temperatures hover in the low 20's, while ridgetop winds blow 30-50 mph from the west and southwest. It's been a week of storminess which in turn doubled our snowpack. Total settled snow depths average five feet and we've gone from zero to hero. On a go anywhere base, the riding and turning conditions are all time right now.
Forecast- Look for light snow through the morning, but the atmosphere is drying and I expect we'll see partly cloudy skies by early afternoon. West and southwest winds are gonna be a nuisance near the ridges where they'll blow in the 30's and 40's before tapering off by about dinnertime. High temperatures climb into the upper 20's and overnight lows dip into the teens.
Futurecast- A break in the action for Friday with another round of storminess slated for late in the weekend into the middle of next week. These are mild storms delivering high density snow.
Snow summary from NRCS SNOTEL sites:
Chalk Creek #1 (9,171') - 53" snow depth (10.6" total water)
Trial Lake (9,992') - 65" snow depth (10.3" total water)
Wolf Creek Peak (9,796') - 44" snow depth (8.3" total water)
Currant Creek (7,915') - 33" snow depth (7.7" total water)
Daniels-Strawberry (8,008') - 41" snow depth (8.5" total water)
Strawberry Divide (8,123') - 50" snow depth (11.2" total water)
Recent Avalanches
No reported avalanche activity yesterday, but below are a few highlights from earlier this week-
North Slope and the north side of Double Hill which avy-savvy, snow-pro's Ted Scroggin and Steve Martin documented HERE along with a great viddy captured HERE.
On the south half of the range this slide triggered mid slope on a heavily wind loaded east facing slope at 9,500' in Blind Stream has similar characteristics.
Read more Uinta observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mark describes in excellent detail, what he and Westin D found whilst visiting the Iron Mine area Tuesday.
It's not the snow we're riding in... it's the snow we're riding on. Strong snow resting on weak snow is as dangerous as a migrating school of white sharks at our local break and this setup isn't going away quickly. In other words, we need to go to the mountains on its terms, give the snowpack some time to adjust, and simply avoid the sharks habitat. Perhaps over time these visiting apex predators leave their feeding grounds and we can paddle out into the lineup. However, now is the time to pump the brakes, practice some patience, know it's a long season and we've got plenty more opportunities to ride fresh pow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above is a 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,661')
Fresh wind drifts-
Today's wind and storm snow create sensitive drifts reactive to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, I suspect you'll also find shallow drifting at lower elevations and around terrain features like chutes and gullies.The ticket is to avoid fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they sound hollow like a drum.
Older wind drifts-
Mark had some great insight and thoughts from his field day yesterday... "Storms since Jan 5 have come with a lot of wind including last weekend. Winds had reached well into normally sheltered areas. I was surprised to see large drifts on normally sheltered terrain." Perhaps older drifts are harder to trigger, but once initiated they'll be packing a punch.
Additional Information
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at [email protected] or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
Issued at 0400 on Thursday, January 18th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Friday, January 19th, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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