Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, January 17, 2022
In general, you'll find LOW avalanche danger throughout the range and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Remember... LOW danger... ain't NO DANGER, so if you're getting into steep, technical terrain, think about your exit strategy beforehand and have a plan prior to sending a big, committing line.

We're off to a great start and it's been a remarkable season so far! In fact, it's a rarity to have such a deep, supportable snowpack this early in the season that's generally safe on many slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
A big, bright, beautiful Wolf Moon illuminates our mountains this morning where the air is clear and temperatures inverted, meaning it's warmer the higher you go. Ridgetops register near 30 degrees, whilst trailhead locations report in the low 20's. Winds are light and westerly, blowing just 15-20 mph even near the high peaks.. On a go-anywhere base, it's a great day for exploring our remarkable backyard.
FORECAST-
One more beautiful day is on tap in the mountains with mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 30's. Westerly winds remain well behaved for most of the day, blowing in the 20's along the high peaks, bumping into the 30's late in the day. Overnight lows dip into the teens.
FUTURECAST-
A weak storm clips the region late Tuesday, bringing clouds, cooler temperatures, but little in the way of snow. High pressure builds for midweek and perhaps a few inches of snow towards the end of the work.
Coverage is incredible for mid January! Snow depths average three feet at 8000', while at upper elevations that number nearly doubles and consistently registers closer to six feet on all aspects. In the image above, our main man Ted Scroggin effortlessly breaks trail on a bomber base with a little cold, recycled cream on top. Ted and I stomped around Chalk Creek Saturday, finding a remarkable snowpack, providing efficient travel. Our trip report is found HERE.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Other than this week old slide in Upper Chalk Creek that Ted and I spotted over the weekend, it's been quiet on the eastern front.

Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE

Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Current state of the snowpack-
Wow... what a Uinta snowpack! It's taken a minute or two, but finally... our pack is deep, solid, and mostly stable. The big Christmas storm was the game changer not only with snow, but more importantly with big water numbers or what we call SWE... snow water equivalent. So, here's the setup- for a couple of weeks we received a tremendous amount of water weight, storm snow, and nuking winds and all this additional weight and stress was like parking a battleship on top of the weak, early season, sugary base. Yes... some terrain teetered on the edge of failure, some big slopes naturally avalanched, and others held tight. There were a few surprises early in the season, but fortunately everyone came out unscathed with a new found understanding of our snowpack structure.
The good news-
The pack is happy in its own skin, the Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) is trending towards dormancy, and it's time to slowly start stepping into big terrain. And while all the stability indicators align suggesting green light conditions, always take a moment and dip a toe into the water before diving head first. Start with mini golf terrain and see how it's reacting before committing to dive head first into a big line.
What to watch out for-
You'd have to go out of your way to trigger a slide today, but the usual suspects come to mind... upper elevation, rocky, alpine terrain above treeline. In other words... anywhere the pack is thin and weak, maybe around a bush or a rock we can't see barely covered over with snow. In terrain with these characteristics you can get an unwelcome surprise and still trigger a slide.
Guide and avy educator extraordinaire, Weston Shirey was near Haystack yesterday and reports 140 cm of settled snow. Weston notes the pack is gaining strength, yet it's not as strong a what he's observed recently in the Wasatch. Weston's informative take on things is found HERE.
Additional Information
Last week we installed the Beacon Basin training park at Nobletts Trailhead. Huge thanks to Wasatch and Summit County SAR, along with BCI for all the support making this potentially life saving resource available to our entire community.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday January 18th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.