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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Tuesday, March 22, 2022
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes above 9500' that face northwest, north and northeast.
Human triggered avalanches breaking 3 feet deep in these locations are likely.
Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow in these areas have increased the chances for triggering a dangerous avalanche.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Temperatures on Monday stayed relatively cool with highs around 30˚F. They dropped into the mid teens again overnight. There was definitely some north wind along the higher terrain on Monday. It looks like it's still blowing at a moderate speed.
Mountain Weather
We should see continued moderate speed ridgetop north wind today with temperatures into the mid 30s. We have some low level moisture producing clouds that are shrouding the mountains. This may break a bit as the day goes on. The gradual warming trend continues through the remainder of the week. The next chance for snow is around the end of the month.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The buried Persistent Weak Layer of faceted snow that formed in Jan/Feb remains the biggest threat. The layer is buried about 3 feet deep. I have not heard of any avalanches for a week now. Snowpit test results remain poor with a clean failure on the weak layer. I will say they are getting more stubborn to fail. Below are some thoughts about how things may play out:
  • I am hopeful that the string of warm days this week is enough to settle and strengthen the snowpack to the point that it is stable. Warm temperatures help stabilize the snowpack more so than mid winter cold temperatures.
  • The flip side is that when temperatures get too warm, they can actually decrease the strength of the snowpack. It is very possible that later in the week temperatures may get warm enough to weaken the snowpack and we could see a round of natural avalanches breaking into the Persistent Weak Layer from Jan/Feb. The one thing we have on our side is that this is a gradual warming trend which allows the snowpack to slowly adjust. However, it looks awefully warm by next weekend so we'll want to pay close attention to the state of the pack by then.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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