Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
The overall danger rating on the Skyline is rated MODERATE.
The avalanche danger is slowly decreasing over time.
Human triggered avalanches are possible but not all that likely today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Riding conditions remain good on northwest through northeast facing terrain. You'll find some wind damaged snow up high on exposed terrain. Sunny facing slopes have become damp during the day and frozen up overnight. You'll find crusts there this morning. Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s on Tuesday and were in the low 20s overnight. Wind from the southwest bumped up in speed slightly and is in the moderate speed category along the more exposed terrain.
Mountain Weather: We'll see some clouds today as a minor storm system brushes by to our north. Temperatures will get into the upper 20s and wind from the southwest will be light to moderate in speed. There is a storm moving through on Thursday but most of the energy is to our north. We might pick up a trace to a few inches of snow. Overall, the pattern looks mostly quiet for our area until later in February.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The only real concern out there is the minor chance a person could trigger an avalanche that breaks deep into the Persistent Weak Layer of sugary faceted snow that formed in December. Without any significant weather like a large new load of snow or strong wind, the snowpack continues to settle and stabilize. It's almost to the point where we can call the old weak snow dormant. The bummer is that the old weak snow still remains somewhat weak and could become active again with a significant new snow event. This is only speculation as there are no large storms in sight.
In the meantime, continue to use caution on steep slopes where the snowpack is shallow and in very steep rocky terrain.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.