Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Saturday, December 25, 2021
WARNING!! DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST!!
The avalanche danger is HIGH today. Human triggered avalanches are verty likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is DEFINITELY NOT RECOMMENDED!
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
What
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH WITH DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.
When
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY.
Where
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE.
Impacts
RECENT HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
The Skyline picked up about another 6 inches of snow Friday morning bringing storm totals up to about 27 inches. Snow turned more showery afternoon without much more accumulation. The wind increased in speed in the afternoon and was definitely drifting snow. Temperatures were very warm during the first part of the storm producing some very high density snow. Things cooled into the low to mid 20s for the rest of the storm and snow densities were lower.
Mountain Weather
It looks like it'll be a pretty nice day in the mountains today with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 20s. Southwest wind looks a bit breezy this morning but it should slow as the day goes on. The next series of storms will move through Sunday and Monday where we'll see a number of periods of snow. Right now it's looking like 10 to 15 inches of accumulation. The pattern remains active over the next few weeks with smaller storms moving through.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Your biggest concern is triggering and avalanche that breaks into old weak sugary faceted snow near the base of the snowpack. These avalanches will be around 3 feet deep now. The problem exists on upper elevation northwest, north and northeast facing slopes.
HEADS UP!! I suspect the conditions will be more stubborn now compared to last week. Last week, everything you touched would crack and collapse. I expect the collapsing to be much less now. You may not see any natural avalanches from the storm. Recent avalanches, collapsing and cracking are the main red flags we look for and if you are not seeing these, you may tend to think things are not dangerous. MAKE NO MISTAKE that the buried persistent weak layer of sugar will produce avalanches today. Things are going in a good direction for us as far as this weak layer gaining strength and becoming stable. But you need to have some patience until we are certain that conditions are safe.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I saw some natural slab avalanches on Friday that involved only the new snow. They appeared to be failing at the new snow/old snow interface. My guess is this problem will have settled out and the new snow itself will be stable. However, we've had some wind and fresh drifts may be unstable.
The message here is that stability is improving but dangerous conditions still exist today. Use caution. Let all the new snow settle and stabilize before hitting anything big.
Additional Information
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
  • Be very careful, keep your speed down, and stay in control. Encounters with shallowly buried rocks or down trees in the early season have led to many season-ending injuries.