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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Sunday, November 25, 2018
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes above 9500' that face northwest, north and northeast. Old weak snow from October will not be able to support the new wind blown snow. Human triggered avalanches are likely in this terrain. Outside of this terrain, the avalanche danger is LOW to MODERATE.
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Weather and Snow
The Skyline picked up another 6 to 13 inches of snow Saturday. Totals since Thanksgiving are 11 to 16 inches. That's a little bit on the low end of what I was expecting but not bad. From the instrumentation, it looks like the top of Fairview Canyon picked up the most snow. The wind was gusting to near 60 from the west on Saturday at the most exposed locations. It has slowed and is fairly light this morning. Temperatures are in the single digits in the high country this morning.
We'll have a day or two of high pressure and then it looks like we'll have a minor storm Tuesday into Wednesday with a better looking storm shaping up for Friday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Good news, bad news.
Bad news. There is enough old weak snow on north facing slopes above about 9500' left from earlier in the season to cause concern. It is certainly weak enough to cause avalanches. It is likely that a person could trigger an avalanche 8 to 14" deep today in the described terrain.
Good news. The big picture is that this weak snow is not covering all that much of the terrain in whole. Look at the location rose and you'll see the area in blue is where you'll find this weak snow. All the area indicated in grey does not contain any weak snow.
Also, it is difficult to get to many of the suspect slopes right now because of lack of snow on the approach. Furthermore, it is still early in the season and still quite a long way away before people will be venturing into this terrain. So, while we currently have some weak snow, it doesn't necessarily mean this season is going to be dangerous. We need to see what the future weather patterns do. Stay tuned.
Additional Information
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