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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, January 7, 2024
The avalanche danger is increasing! There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in the upper elevation northwest through east facing slopes. We may see natural avalanches in this terrain today. Human triggered avalanches are also possible. We are pushing 20 inches of new snow since Thursday. This new snow landed on a weak base. It's time to start stepping back and avoiding steep terrain.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: We received another good shot of snow overnight. This time in a southwest flow, the Fairview Canyon zone was favored and it looks like 6 to 10 inches of new snow so far. The central and southern Skyline has about 5 inches of new snow. This brings totals since Thursday up to around 20 inches. With cold temperatures and light wind speeds, the snow is low density powder.
Mountain Weather: We should see snowfall through the day today with 4 to 8 inches more snow possible by Monday. Southwest wind wind gradually shift and come from the northwest. Speeds will stay fairly light. Colder air will move in and temperatures will fall into the single digits this afternoon. Snow may linger a bit into Monday then another chance for snow Tuesday-Wednesday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Description
The weak preexisting snow from earlier this season that makes up our shaky and fragile base is my biggest concern right now. We are now adding layers on top of this weak base and sooner or later things are going to become dangerous, maybe today. Timing is a little tricky but the writing is on the wall. Until today, I've felt comfortable prowling around in steeper terrain. Even though there hasn't been much wind to form slabs, there's enough new snow to make me nervous given the weak base it's falling on. I'll be avoiding steep terrain today.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.