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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, January 23, 2024
The overall avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE.
Human triggered avalanches are still a very real threat.
Continue to avoid steep terrain on the mid and upper elevation slopes that face west, north and east.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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One evening of online presentations, one full day out in the backcountry with instructors.
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Feb 2nd and 3rd - MORE DETAILS HERE
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Temperatures remained steady in the mid 20s over the last 24 hours. Wind has been slight from the south and southeast. There's quite a bit of dense soft snow around which makes for nice riding conditions. The problem is there are still lots of places where snow machines are punching through into the sugary base. Not so much so around the Fairview/Miller Flat zone where the snowpack is a bit deeper and stronger. The central and southern Skyline remains very shallow and shallow snow is weak snow, hence, you punch through and trench a lot.
Mountain Weather: Expect cloudy skies with the chance for light snowfall but no accumulation. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s and we'll have light wind from the south. There might be a partial break in the clouds Wednesday then another round of light snow on Thursday that might produce an inch or two. It looks like the weather clears up for the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
There are two newer avalanches that are noteworthy. The first one was in Logger's Fork of Manti Canyon. It released sometime since about Saturday. It's possible it was natural but more likely that it was triggered remotely by some snowbikers that were passing by. MORE DETAILS
The next one was in Spring Creek south of the kite launch parking lot at the Skyline Summit. This one definitely was not there when I came through on Friday. This one may have been natural but, again, it was more likely triggered by snowmachines. MORE DETAILS The reason that these slides probably did not release naturally is there was no weather event to act as a trigger. Generally you need some wind that drifts snow or some additional new snow to overload a slope and act as a trigger. We haven't had any of this since last Wednesday. Photo: Chris Magerl
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak sugary snow at the base of our snowpack remains a very real threat. There are many red flags that I'm seeing:
  • Recent avalanches
  • Collapsing (whumpfing) of the snowpack
  • Shooting cracks
  • Poor snowpack structure
  • Poor snowpit test results
I toured around Ephraim and Manti Canyons and found the snowpack to be shallower and much weaker than I anticipated. We are a long way off from having stable conditions. All you can do is avoid the steeper terrain until we see conditions improve.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.