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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, January 18, 2024
The avalanche danger remains HIGH.
Recent dense new snow along with strong wind continues to overload our snowpack with a weak base and produce dangerous avalanche conditions.
Human triggered avalanches are almost certain on many steep slopes.
Avalanches can be triggered from a distance right now so it's important to be sure you are not underneath any steep slope as well as to avoid being directly on any steep slope.
Any slope steeper than 30˚ has the capability of avalanching.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Yesterday's windy storm dropped 5 to 7 inches of high density snow. Did I mention wind? It blew like crazy again from the west and is still gusty this morning. Temperatures have been mild and steady in the mid 20s for the last 24 hours. The new snow is very dense but we found it produced nice turning conditions.
Mountain Weather: The wind will continue to blow in the moderate to strong range through at least mid day and taper off tonight. Temperatures will remain in the mid 20s. The clouds shrouding the mountains this morning may start to break up as the day goes on. We'll have a fairly decent weather day on Friday with partly cloudy skies. More clouds move in Saturday and then we'll see periods of snow Saturday night through mid week. It looks like fairly light accumulations with a few inches here and there.
Recent Avalanches
I did not see any avalanche activity on Wednesday but, once again, visibility was poor. What I do know is that the wind was actively drifting the new high density snow all day and it's hard to imagine that there were not any avalanches given the current weak snowpack structure.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The weak snow at the base of our snowpack has once again been stressed by added weight from wind drifted high density snow. The only rational thing to do right now is to continue to avoid being on or below any steep slope. Persistent Weak Layers of faceted snow are notorious for avalanches being triggered from a distance so it is VERY important to keep in mind what is above you.
Short term: very dangerous conditions still exist.
Long term: all the new snow we've been receiving is just what we need to help the snowpack eventually become stable. IT IS NOT THERE YET. Hopefully the storms keep coming and we start to see strengthening of the buried sugary snow at the base of the pack. It can sinter and bond which strengthens the weak snow but it is a slow process. Stay tuned!
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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