Weak, old snow has lingered on higher slopes above 8500' facing W-N-E since the beginning of the season. With multiple days of above freezing temperatures and rain events—including a deluge up to 10,000 feet on Christmas Eve, the weak snow that makes up the majority of the snowpack is left damp to wet, yet still produces easy propagation.

The faceted grains at the base of the snowpack are wet, but also unsettlingly unconsolidated. Our forecast team collectively has not seen anything quite like this, especially in late December. This is to say, we have high uncertainty in the snowpack. Will the various crusts support riders from triggering a slide on the weak snow below? Will they collapse, but the wet facets won't allow for propagation? The answer is likely yes and no to both of these, as the snowpack varies across terrain. Crusts are known for connecting slopes, and allowing for propagation. Wet or not, I don't trust a facet.

While today is a tricky day to forecast, it's a pretty simple ski day if you’re seeking out good riding. Low angle, protected slopes under 30 degrees will be where you’re least likely to trigger an avalanche and, they will have the best ski quality since you won’t be hitting those darned crusts as much.

Mark White shows the weakness of the snowpack on Christmas Day.

New Snow: 2-5 inches of new, cold snow fell in the past 36 hours, with the potential for another 4-8 inches during the day today. This new, light snowfall is falling on top of a mixed grab bag of crusts from high temps and rain events earlier this week. These crusts range from firm, slick, icy and supportable to grippy, porous, aerated, and collapsible. Pockets of this new snow will potentially run farther and faster than you might expect on these slicker crusts.

Wind Drifted Snow: In areas with more textured surfaces—better for bonding with new snow—on the the leeward sides of ridges and in mid-slope catchment areas like gullies and rollovers, expect the wind to deposit slabs of fresh snow that will be sensitive to your bodyweight. These smaller avalanches will be effective triggers for stepping down to the larger, more consequential avalanches mentioned above.