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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Monday morning, April 1, 2019
The avalanche danger starts out at LOW this morning. By mid morning and early afternoon, the avalanche danger for wet avalanches will quickly rise to MODERATE or higher in the steep sunlit terrain due to strong sun and warming temperatures. Natural and wet loose avalanches will be possible. With advancing clouds, low to mid elevation northerly slopes may become damp and unstable as well.

The mid and upper elevation northwest through northeast facing terrain has a LOW danger, where there is an isolated chance of triggering a shallow new snow soft slab avalanche.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Canyons snow safety teams will be conducting avalanche work in the McDonald Draw area along the Park City ridgeline today; please avoid that area today.
Utah has a rich history of avalanches. From the earlier mining days of Alta to the start of avalanche research and snow science in the US in Little Cottonwood Canyon in 1939. Snowpack and weather data has been collected from the Alta Guard Station every year since making it the longest snow plot history in the US. These roots made the UAC an early leader in avalanche education and forecasting.
Weather and Snow
Happy April Fool's -
Glorious this morning. Skies are currently clear but we'll see increasing high and then mid-level clouds as the day wears on.
Winds are west-northwesterly, blowing 10-15mph with gusts to 25. Along the highest elevations, wind speeds are about twice that.
Mountain temperatures are in the upper teens to low 20s.
Soft settled powder is still found on the mid and upper elevation northerly aspects; the sunny aspects (east-south-west) will go from breakable to unsupportable with daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 40s in the mid-elevations. Advancing cloud cover may offset or accentuate the heating of the snow today - take note and adjust accordingly.

Snow and water numbers for the month at the Alta Guard station (UDOT LCC) are an even 100" for March (9.35” SWE). This puts March 2019 in the top 20 and pushed us over 400” for the season (410” at 40.77” SWE). We need a 74" April (average is 66") to make this an average season for snowfall. Snowfall records since 1944 can be found here. Remember, we don't need to be greedy. An average winter will do.

The current low amplitude ridge starts to shift east today ahead of the mid-week storm that'll start to spit and sputter perhaps overnight tonight but with the main event tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. 6-12" may be expected by Wednesday midday or so. This is a much warmer system with a rain/snow line at 7-7500'. Weak ridging follows for Thursday with another, weaker storm Friday into Saturday.
Recent Avalanches
Wet activity yesterday was noted to be more pronounced yesterday than the day before with natural and human triggered wet sluffs in the midday hours.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wet loose avalanches will again be the main issue today. The good news: this problem is predictable and avoidable. As the day heats up the east facing terrain will be the first to become wet and soggy, followed by the south, southwest and finally the west aspects later in the day. As the snow surface becomes damp, wet and soggy it's time to get off of and out from under any steep sunlit terrain. This wet snow could pack a punch if gets warm enough today as there are slick crusts 10-15" down for the wet snow to run fast and far on.
The fine print: Increasing clouds today may either offset or accentuate the wet activity today by either blotting out the sun OR promoting greenhousing (trapping and adding heat to even low and mid-elevation northerly slopes). Similarly, the winds shouldn't be a factor until overnight, but...if they kick in earlier, they'll help offset the heating issues. The key will be to recognizing how the snow is behaving and adjusting your terrain selection accordingly.
Example of wet loose naturals from Saturday (pc: Gagne)
Avalanche Problem #2
Gliding Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's glide avalanche season in the standard areas of Broads, Stairs, and Mill B South of BCC, upper Porter Fork (Raymond Slabs), and other areas where the glide cracks are opening. A large glide release ran in mid-Broads Fork (Bonkers) on Saturday (pic below). Bill Nalli has an excellent pic of the many glide cracks in steep east to northeast facing Broads from yesterday. These are not human triggered - they run spontaneously as full depth releases and would likely be unsurvivable. Avoidance and/or minimizing exposure is the best course of action. For more info on glides, click here and here.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.