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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, December 10, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on mid and upper elevation aspects facing northwest through north and east, where human-triggered avalanches may break down 1-4' deep and over 200' wide, failing on a persistent weak layer of faceted snow.
These avalanches can be triggered from a distance, so make sure there are no steep slopes above you.
Continue to avoid being on slopes steeper than 30˚ degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Under mostly cloudy skies, the mountain temperatures span 15-20 °F across the Wasatch Range. Winds are blowing southwest with many anemometers spinning 15-25 mph.
Today, we can expect mostly cloudy skies and temperatures rising into the upper 20s and low 30s °F. Winds will remain from the southwest and strengthen throughout the day and are forecast to reach speeds of 20-30 mph gusting into the 30s & 40s across the upper elevation terrain.
A significant winter storm is churning off the coast of northern California and heading our way. This storm will impact Utah beginning today with an increase in southerly winds. Sunday morning light snow showers will begin to develop along the Wasatch Front lasting through Tuesday, with the heaviest precipitation overnight Sunday into Monday. Storm totals could stack up to 15-25" inches of new snow.
Recent Avalanches
Two natural avalanches were reported from Dry Fork, and both were at 10,400' in elevation and were roughly 18" deep and up to 100' wide.
Another party reported one person going for a small ride in a wind slab avalanche that was 14" inches deep and 25' feet wide. Luckily it was slow-moving, and the person didn't go very far. Other parties also reported new wind slab development on lee ridges from the southerly winds. Most of these new wind slabs were 1-2' deep and up to 50' wide.
Be sure to check out all observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We have plenty of weak sugary faceted snow (persistent weak layer) scattered on almost all aspects and elevations throughout the Wasatch Range. However, what varies is the slab (the snow sitting above the weak layer). In sheltered locations, this slab might only be 10-15" inches deep, and in areas where the wind has loaded the slope, the slab could be anywhere from 1-4' feet deep and hard as a rock. In any case, we have dangerous avalanche conditions and you can still trigger a season-ending slab avalanche 1-4' feet deep and hundreds of feet wide, failing on a persistent weak layer.
With more snow and wind on the way, the avalanche danger will be on the rise. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. But, the good news! This problem will go away, just not this week. Remember, it's a long season, and it's shaping up to be an epic winter, don't ruin it now by getting caught in an avalanche.
Video: Drew Hardesty & Wilson from Mt. Aire.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As the southerly winds continue to strengthen over the next 24 hours, and with plenty of snow available to transport, we can expect to find new slabs of wind-drifted snow dotted across the terrain. These slabs of wind-drifted snow can be soft or hard and will be most pronounced at upper elevations on slopes facing west through north through southeast.
Remember, any wind slab avalanche that you trigger has the potential to step down into deeper weaker layers in the snowpack, creating a much more dangerous avalanche.
Additional Information
Our Week in Review, which highlights significant snow and avalanche events from this past Week, has been published. Mark Staples has also written an excellent piece describing the weather from the early winter.
General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.