Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Saturday morning, November 5, 2022

Today will be a day of rising avalanche danger as the storm evolves. There is a current overall MODERATE avalanche danger that will rise to CONSIDERABLE danger above 9500' on North-Southeast aspects with forecasted snow and wind.

With forecasted heavy snow fall and strong winds, human triggered avalanches will become likely on steep wind drifted slopes.

Today is a day of high uncertainty and a great day to practice assessment. If you see changing snow and weather conditions, don't be afraid to step back.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

Learn how to read the forecast here

Special Announcements

Alta and Snowbird Ski Areas are closed to all uphill travel. To prepare for winter operations and increasing avalanche hazard. Thank you for respecting these closures.

Access to Grizzly Gulch and Catherine's pass is open. Remember all ski area terrain is still backcountry terrain with no control work or ski patrol services available.

Mill Creek Canyon Road will be closed November 8-10th for road work.

With the start of the season it's time to brush up on some continuing education. Check out the upcoming PROSAW and USAW, events next week.

Weather and Snow

This morning we've had a few inches of wind affected new snow reported. The highest weather stations are rimed with the 11,000 ridgelines showing winds in the high 40's gusting to the mid 70's (mph) from the north west. Temperatures at the lower elevations are in the low 30's F and at highest stations temperatures are in the low 20's F. Expect temperatures to rise throughout the day before dropping later this afternoon with the passage of the cold front. For today we are expecting 12-16" of new snow, with the bulk of the storm coming through late afternoon.

Snowpack depths are 1-3' with the deepest amounts in upper Little Cottonwood. The Ogden and Provo mountains have snowpack depths roughly half that amount.

Recent Avalanches

Thanks to all the people that submitted great observations yesterday. There were reports of wind drifting and Isolated wind slabs on southeast facing slopes.

On the north-north east facing aspects there were reports of very small dry loose avalanches that wouldn't have been enough to bury even the smallest avalanche dog. These loose dry avalanches show us that there is a weakness in the snow surface. These are places I would keep an eye on as the heavier new snow lands on the lighter snow surface.

Great photo of wind loading in Cardiff Pass from Gidding's observation

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Prior to this storm there were areas of wind drifted snow that were reactive to skis. With the increased winds from the northwest over night and throughout the day I would expect that one might find wind drifts becoming larger and more sensitive. Be wary of rounded pillows of snow and look for wind drifts lower on the slopes than you might expect as winds gust into the 70's (mph).

Soft Wind Drifts (Nalli)

Stiffer wind drifts

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

As of this forecast we've received a few inches of heavily affected snow in the mountains with up to 12-16" of new now forecasted. While normal Utah powder falls in the 8% category, today's snow is forecast to fall at a rate closer to 11-13% which means heavy snow on top of light snow and an upside down style snowpack. With more snow forecast for the afternoon keep an eye out for natural or human triggered avalanches. I like to think of the five red flags:

1. Recent Avalanches

2. Cracking and Collapsing

3. Wind Loading

4. Heavy Snowfall

5. Rapid Warming

If I see or note any of these then I like re-assess my travel plans.

Additional Information

A Few Things to Remember:

Whether you're-hiking, hunting, skiing, boarding, snowshoeing or firing up the snowmachine: be prepared for avalanches
Any avalanche can produce serious trauma because of a thin snowpack
Hitting rocks and stumps is a real danger. Don't end your season.
Treat ski resorts as backcountry terrain and check out the UAC site for resort uphill travel policies

It's never too early to start thinking about avalanches. A few things to consider:

1. Attend USAW and learn more about avalanches and decision making. (scroll down to the bottom of this page for more info and links)

2. Sign up for an avalanche class.

4. Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).

5. Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.

Sign up for the 15th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) one night left, November 9th. Sign up and get more info for the second session HERE.

The Avalanche Professional and Ski Patrol Snow and Avalanche Workshop (PROSAW) will be during the day of November 7th. Sign up and get more info HERE. (note - PROSAW will be offered both in-person and virtual).

General Announcements

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures