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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Thursday morning, November 29, 2018
Human triggered avalanches are likely on slopes facing the northern half of the compass at mid and upper elevations where the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. These slopes have old snow from October that weakened and has become a persistent weak layer. This old snow also exists on upper elevation slopes facing W and SE but it is not as widespread thus a MODERATE danger exists on these slopes.
Before Thanksgiving, all other slopes were bare ground and they lack this layer of weak, old snow. With only the new snow from the last week, the danger on these slopes is LOW. The snowpack remains thin on these slopes and there is a greater danger of hitting rocks, stumps and logs. These obstacles will be harder to see with new snow that fell overnight and more falling this afternoon.
Low
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Special Announcements
The 2nd Annual Ogden Backcountry Bash is coming up tonight, November 29 at 6PM at The Front Climbing Gym in Ogden. Details here.
We have a couple of fun events coming up on December 5th and 6th in Salt Lake and Park City. Topics include Recreating in New Zones, Women's Specific Avalanche Awareness, and a slide show from Ascent Magazine. More info about these events HERE.
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Weather and Snow
Since yesterday the Cottonwood Canyons received 4-5 inches of snow (0.4" of water) and the Park City ridgeline received 2-4 inches of snow.
Winds were a little stronger overnight, but are light this morning blowing 5-10 mph from the W and SW.
Temperatures are in the upper 20s F at many trailhead locations. Near ridgetops, temperatures are in the low 20s and upper teens F.
The snowpack is slowly growing and about 2 feet deep on average. It's a little shallower on S aspects and deeper on N aspects. Overall the snowpack is supportable and travel on skis has become much easier.
Today there will be a lull in snowfall but more is on its way this afternoon and tonight. Winds should remain light but increase this afternoon and shift to the SW and S blowing 20-30 mph. Temperatures should warm into the low 30s at 8000 feet. A few inches of snow should accumulate by the end of the day. By tomorrow morning I expect a total of 6-10 inches of snow. Snowfall will continue Friday.
Recent Avalanches
One notable avalanche occurred two days ago in Little Cottonwood Canyon when skiers walking in low angle terrain triggered an avalanche 100 feet away on an upper elevation north facing slope.
No avalanches were reported yesterday, but Trent and I experienced widespread collapsing on East facing slopes in Days Fork at mid and upper elevations. If we had skied steeper terrain, we would have triggered an avalanche.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Any slope harboring old snow that fell in October should be avoided because it will likely produce an avalanche. The old October snow became weak and faceted. It is now a persistent weak layer on which many avalanches have occurred. Yesterday this layer was collapsing and whumpfing as Trent and I skied in Days Fork. This layer is thickest and easiest to find on any northerly facing slope. We found it on E facing slopes and even on SE facing slopes above 9500 feet.
With additional loading overnight, this layer will likely produce avalanches today if you get on a slope steeper than 30 degrees.
HEADS UP - More snow and increased S/SW winds will come this afternoon. These southerly winds will drift snow onto northerly facing slopes which are ones with the weakest and most unstable snow. Depending on how much snow falls tonight, avalanches could occur naturally tomorrow. I would also expect that you could trigger them remotely which means you can trigger them from some distance away.
Additional Information
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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