Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, April 9, 2022

Today we have a MODERATE avalanche danger on slopes facing northwest, north, northeast, and east at the upper elevations for fresh drifts of wind-blown snow.

There is also a MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes that face northwest, north, and northeast for the possibility of triggering a much larger and more dangerous avalanche that fails 1-2' deep on a buried persistent weak layer.

Remember - risk is inherent in mountain travel, and even a small avalanche can lead to a bad outcome in radical terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Last night around 10:00 pm, the winds picked up and are currently blowing from the west-southwest at speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20's & 30's across the upper elevations as a dry cold front crosses over northern Utah. Above 10,500', the winds are blowing from the west at 25-30 mph, gusting into the 50's. Mountain temperatures remain warm, with overnight lows in the upper 30's to low 40's °F across almost all elevations.

Today we will see mostly cloudy skies and mountain temperatures cooling throughout the day. The 700 millibar (10,000') temperature drops to -2°C (28°F) by noon. Winds will remain elevated throughout the day and will continue to blow from the westerly direction at speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts into the 20's & 30's.

This week winter will return to northern Utah as a robust storm system will impact us starting Monday. By Wednesday we could see 14-22 inches of new snow.

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanches were reported yesterday.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Many surfaces won't have any snow to blow around and drift because they are frozen this morning, and there is no snow available for transport. However, dry, cold powder remains on northerly facing slopes above about 9,000' in elevation, and these would be the slopes I would suspect to find some wind drifted snow on.

Be on the lookout for snow that is actively being drifted by the wind and avoid areas that look pillowy and rounded. Wind drifted snow can also feel stiff/hard and hollow like a drum. Any wind drifted snow avalanche triggered could step down into deeper weaker layers, especially on upper elevation northerly facing steep terrain (persistent weak layer problem).

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

On upper elevation northerly slopes, any avalanche may step down to a weak layer of facets (persistent weak layer) 1-2' deep, particularly in the southern part of the Provo mountains. These facets are remnant from the dry spell in Jan and February and are slowly stabilizing.

There is a great deal of uncertainty with this layering, but this structure has been active further south on the Manti-Skyline Plateau as recently as last Saturday. It is worth pulling your shovel out and looking at the snow structure yourself. Bo Torrey found unstable test results in Big Springs last weekend, while Drew's test results hinted at a more stabilizing snowpack from a field day on Wednesday. More info can be found HERE.

For now, I would approach upper elevation northerly facing terrain with caution.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Is the snow surface frozen? Good question. Overnight and current mountain air temperatures hover in the upper 30's & low 40 °F across all elevations. This morning, the Atwater mountain weather station (8,752') records a current snow surface temperature of 28.8°F. The current 700 millibar (10,000') temperature is 35°F, and by noon this temperature is forecast to drop to 28°F. We are also expecting plenty of wind and cloud cover throughout the day.

Therefore, my bet is the snow surface overnight has had a shallow refreeze, and throughout the day today, as the temperatures continue to cool, we won't see wet snow avalanches. However, it's always best to evaluate the snow as you travel, and if you find yourself in wet and unsupportable snow, it's time to head home or change your aspect.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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