Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Greg Gagne for
Friday, March 1, 2024

The avalanche danger is MODERATE the mid and upper elevations on slopes with new and recent slabs of wind-drifted snow. Fresh wind drifts may be found on all aspects, including well-down into drainage bottoms which are usually wind-protected. While unlikely, it's still possible to trigger a slab avalanche 2' thick on a buried persistent weak layer on east and southeast facing slopes. The avalanche danger is LOW at low elevations.

Stay well back from ridgelines as cornices are large and sensitive, including breaking off naturally.

The avalanche danger will be on the rise through this weekend with strong winds and heavy snowfall arriving by Saturday afternoon.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Nina Simone's "Wild is the Wind" is fitting as strong winds from the south/southwest highlight this morning's weather, with gusts exceeding 50 mph above 9,500'. These strong winds are also getting down into the mid and lower elevations, with gusts in the 40's mph. Temperatures range from 25°-35° F.

For today, strong sustained winds from the south/southwest. Average wind speeds will be in the 20's mph (gusting near 50 mph) at 9,000' and 30's mph (gusting near 60 mph) at 11,000'. Light snow is possible this afternoon, with 1" expected; good luck trying to measure it in these winds.

Overnight into Saturday: Our partners at the National Weather Service have issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Wasatch mountains. Continued strong winds - approaching 100 mph at the upper elevations - with a cold front arriving sometime Saturday afternoon, accompanied by heavy snowfall. Forecast snowfall amounts vary due to how this storm may set up, but 1' to 2' of snow is expected for the Provo mountains by Sunday afternoon, with snow likely continuing into Monday.

Recent Avalanches

Thursday's strong winds had little soft snow available for transport and most observations indicated little wind drifting. However, to our north in the Salt Lake mountains, a party triggered a small, 6" wind slab in steep terrain in Days Fork where a rider was caught and carried (photo below). I recommend reading their thoughtful write-up about the consequences of getting caught in a small slide in steep, complicated terrain.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Strong winds will sculpt the snow surface at the mid and upper elevations, scouring some slopes while creating shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow on others, with no pattern to wind-drifting. With more loose snow available for transport, fresh wind drifts may be more likely at the mid - rather than upper - elevations. Stay well back from ridgelines as cornices are large and sensitive.

Although snowfall today is forecast to be light (and inch or two), any new snow will quickly be transported into fresh wind drifts which may be sensitive.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

A weak facet/crust layer buried by the Valentine's Day storm led to a number of slab avalanches on solar aspects (primarily east and southeast facing aspects) at the mid and upper elevations. This layering has become increasingly stable, but avalanches remain possible. Mark Staples and Trent Meisenheimer went into American Fork on Wednesday and their video describes the situation well.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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