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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Thursday, February 28, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE in the Provo area mountains. On upper elevation slopes of all aspects and mid elevation northwest thorough easterly facing slopes, scattered, hard wind drifts can be triggered and there is an isolated chance of triggering a big avalanche breaking on a persistent weak layer near the ground.
At mid and low elevations, it will be possible to initiate wet loose sluffs on steep slopes, especially in the heat of the day or if it rains where you are.
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Weather and Snow
This morning, under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the low 30s at the mid elevations, with a reading of 39 at 6,675'. It’s going to be another warm, humid day with cloudy skies and temperatures warming into the 40s at 8,500’ and near 30 at 10,000’.
Yesterday, the Provo area mountains picked up 1 to 2” of dense snow. Another trace to 2” of snow is possible this afternoon, with the rain/snow line between 6,500 and 7,000’.
The southwesterly winds are averaging 15 to 25 mph, with gusts in the 40 this morning, and are forecast to remain at those speeds.
Isolated patches of soft dense powder can be found on wind sheltered mid and upper elevation slopes. The snow at the lower elevations is an inconsistent mix of mashed potatoes and crusts.
Overnight, the mountains could get 3 to 5” of snow as a weak cold front moves through. This will be followed by small disturbances adding 1 to 3” every 12 hours, which could add up to a nice refresh of dense snow at the mid and upper elevations.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported from the Provo area mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avoiding the hard, "stubborn" slabs of wind drifted snow that are scattered at the upper elevations is the main avalanche issue today. These wind drifts are most widespread on north and northeasterly facing slopes, but can be found cross loading onto other aspects. “Stubborn” wind drifts are dense or hard and tend to break out above you when you’re a couple turns down the slope or break on the second or third person on a slope.
The best way to avoid these wind slabs is to look for them. Wind drifts are often rounded, smooth, and could feel hard and hollow. Cracking in the snow is a sign of a wind drift. If you see a slope that’s been scoured or eroded, think about where the snow may have been deposited.
The large cornices have become a permanent part of the landscape, and may be a bit more sensitive with the warmer temperatures. They will break back much further than expected - avoid travel below and on these.
American Fork Canyon, photo by Porter.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Temperatures are cooler this morning, but forecast to warm to well above freezing again at the low and mid elevations, with the rain/snow line as high as 7,000’ at times. As the day warms or if it rains significantly where you are, expect to trigger wet loose sluffs in mushy, unconsolidated snow on steep slopes.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Assessing the snowpack in the Provo area mountains in avalanche terrain at mid and upper elevations on NW, N, NE, E aspects (and upper elevation SE) is difficult. Recent natural avalanches have broken at the ground in the Provo mountains, and control work on Sunday at a Cottonwood resort in the Salt Lake mountains produced a slide breaking down 3-4' deep in facets at the ground . Although it is hard to assess the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches, the consequences of getting involved in one is likely deadly. The only mitigation strategy we have is to avoid avalanche terrain for now.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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