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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Friday morning, February 2, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep mid and upper-elevation slopes facing west through north and southeast where there is a possibility of triggering a large and dangerous avalanche failing in a buried persistent weak layer. If you trigger one of these avalanches, it will break 3-6' deep and well over a hundred feet wide.
There is a LOW danger at low elevations and slopes facing south and southwest.
Expect a rising avalanche danger with snow and wind forecast through much of the next 7 days.
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Weather and Snow
Overnight into this Morning: Temperatures are in the upper 20's F. Winds are from the south and light at low and mid elevations, with gusts into the 20's mph at the upper elevations. Snowfall began overnight with 1-2" as of 6 am.
Today: Temperatures will reach the low to mid 30's F. Winds will be from the south this morning and shifting westerly throughout the day, with a west/northwest wind by sundown. Wind speeds will remain light at low and mid elevations, with gusts into the 20's mph at the upper elevations. 2-4" of snow with periods of heavy snow possible, especially by late afternoon.
This Weekend and Beyond: More snow overnight and into Saturday, with weekend snow totaling over a foot. A brief break on Sunday with heavy snow likely Monday through at least Wednesday.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported from the backcountry on Thursday, to our north in the Salt Lake mountains, three large avalanches failing in the PWL over the past six days should stay on everyone's mind as there is a similar structure in the Provo mountains:
Sunday - Skier-triggered avalanche in Davis Gulch on Gobblers Knob
Monday - Natural avalanche in Mineral Fork
Tuesday - Skier-triggered avalanche in Days Fork (photo below looking up at the crown which was 6' deep in places)
These avalanches were 3-6' deep, well over a hundred feet wide, and running up to 2,000'. The two skier-triggered avalanches were close calls, and luck is not a good strategy when dealing with a PWL.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Three avalanches failing in the persistent weak layer (PWL) over the past week indicates this avalanche problem remains a serious concern. Yesterday, UAC forecaster Dave Kelly and I visited the site of Tuesday's skier-triggered avalanche in Days Fork. This avalanche occurred on a steep, upper-elevation north-facing slope and was most likely triggered from a thin spot on the slope and propagated well over a hundred feet wide, with a crown up to 7' deep in places.
UAC forecaster Nikki Champion was in Mineral Fork and describes the PWL issue in her observation and this video:
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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