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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, December 26, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all slopes facing northwest through north and east and mid and upper elevation slopes facing southeast. Human-triggered avalanches are possible and avalanches may break 1-4' deep.
The avalanche danger is LOW on all other slopes.
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Weather and Snow
Temperatures are in the low 30's F at the trailheads. Winds are westerly in the mid teens MPH gusting to the low 20's MPH.
Today, mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be 40-44 F. Winds at the 9000' ridgelines will blow from the west 15 gusting to 25 MPH and at the 11,000' ridgelines 40 gusting to 50 MPH.
The National Weather Service is forecasting an atmospheric river event to hit the Wasatch Range mid-day Tuesday through Thursday with 2.25"-3.25" of water and up to 36" of snow.
Recent Avalanches
There were reports of roof slides in Big Cottonwood Canyon neighborhoods yesterday and any snow left on roofs in the Provo area mountains is suspect.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The persistent weak layer (PWL) that formed in mid-November and was subsequently buried is still distinguishable in snowpits at all aspects and elevations. Yesterday at the top of Little Cottonwood Canyon, my partner and I were still seeing propagation with extended column tests. This buried weak layer of facets is suspect and I would not travel into steep terrain without conducting a series of snowpack tests and only exposing one person to a slope at a time. These results are similar to what I would expect at higher elevation areas in the Provo mountains.
Most avalanche activity on this layer has been on northerly facing terrain. This layer DOES exist in other places as I found yesterday, and it could begin producing avalanches when it gets loaded by a series of storms this week.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With warm temperatures forecasted today and some lower elevation areas remaining above freezing for the last twelve hours I would not be surprised to see some wet loose activity with any hint of sun.
Stay away from any roof that is still holding snow as it may release and cause injury to adults. Be especially watchful of children playing near buildings.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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