The avalanche danger is LOW. You can expect generally safe conditions, and normal caution is advised. With increased winds, watch for fresh wind drifts in exposed upper-elevation terrain.
Weather and SnowThis Morning: Skies are clear, and there is a pretty aggressive temperature inversion in place, with trailhead temperatures hovering in the single digits while ridgetop temperatures range from the teens into the low 20s °F. Winds are from the west-northwest, with gusts in the teens along some mid-elevation ridgelines and near 40 mph along the upper elevation ridgelines.
Today: Sunshine with temperatures rising into the mid-30s °F. Winds will remain out of the west northwest, with gusts in the 50s mph along the highest ridgelines and in exposed upper elevation terrain.
Outlook: The dry pattern will continue through most of the work week. There is still some chance for a system to brush past us Friday into Saturday, though most models show it likely tracking south of the area.
Recent AvalanchesNo new avalanche activity was reported. However, we continue to receive several quality observations from the backcountry, including UAC forecaster Bo Torrey's observation from Cascade Ridge on Friday and Brooke Mashund was at the Ant Knolls on Sunday.
There is no single, dominant avalanche problem today, and overall conditions are generally safe. That said, avalanches are still possible in isolated terrain, especially at the upper elevations.
You may still encounter:
Small wind slabs on upper-elevation ridgelines and around terrain features where snow has drifted
Loose wet avalanches on sunny slopes as the snow warms during the day
Loose dry sluffs are possible on very steep slopes, especially where the snow remains shallow or unconsolidated. As the snow surface continues to weaken, the loose dry problem will continue to increase
Take advantage of the favorable weather for practicing your companion rescue skills, including beacon searches, probing, and strategic shoveling.
Think of the snowpack like any other material that has stress added to it. When we add new snow or wind load, we add weight and tension to the system. Take that loading away for long enough, and the snowpack slowly adjusts and settles, releasing some of that built-up stress. As that happens, avalanches become less likely over time, though they don’t go away entirely.
This is when we enter a period of dormancy. We know the problem technically still exists, but it is currently dormant. It’s been about a week since the last reported slab avalanche, which suggests the snowpack is gradually adjusting. Thin, steep, rocky slopes and shallow snowpack areas remain the most suspect.
While the basal facets remain the primary concern, another thing to keep an eye on is the weakening surface snow. During this stretch of high pressure, the snow surface is becoming weak and faceted, especially in wind-protected terrain. Once buried, this snow could become another persistent weak layer down the line, so it’s worth tracking how much the surface continues to weaken over the next week.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
