Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Thursday morning, January 12, 2023

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all upper elevations and mid-elevation aspects where heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. New snow and wind-drifted snow avalanches may step down into older facets, leading to large and destructive avalanches.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all lower elevations due to the overhead hazard and recent heavy rain.

Avoid travel below steep terrain as avalanches have the potential to run into lower elevation flat areas near trailheads or overrun ice climbing routes.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Overnight mountain locations reported no new snow, and 1-3" of new snow since yesterday morning. That brings final storm totals up to 20-33" of snow.

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures are in the mid-20s F. Winds have transitioned more west, south westerly, and are blowing 10-20 mph, with the upper elevation ridgelines gusting up to 30 mph.

Today, skies will be partly cloudy temperatures will climb into the upper-30s F. Winds will continue to decrease, blowing 5-15 mph at mid-elevation ridgelines, and blowing 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph at the highest ridgelines. Some light snowfall is possible Saturday with a weakening through, but otherwise, the next real storm should arrive Sunday.

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanches reported in the Provo area backcountry.

In the Central Wasatch, multiple users observered triggered sensitive soft slabs within the new snow and wind-drifted snow. As visibility improved, there were also two reports of larger natural avalanches that could have failed on the persistent weak layer of faceted grains near the bottom of the snowpack. This includes one large avalanche reported on the East facing terrain on the Butler Basin side of Gobblers Knob, the crown appears to be anywhere from 6-9' deep. Trent is heading up there today to investigate what layer this avalanche occurred on. The second large avalanche reported was in Mineral Fork. The entire western side, from Barrieto to Moonlight avalanched.

Mineral Fork Avalanche - Find full observation HERE.

On Tuesday, the Provo area mountains went through an impressive natural cycle yesterday morning. Including large hard slab avalanches as well as wet-loose avalanches. One of the most impressive being Bridalviel falls. Find the full observation HERE.

Find all recent avalanches HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

While the winds have backed off this morning, days of high winds in combination with soft snow available for transport will have formed sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow on all mid and upper-elevation slopes. These soft slabs will be most pronounced on lee-ward facing slopes, but elevated winds can load any aspect because winds swirl and change direction as they pass through the mountains, this is known as cross-loading.

Look for cracking, collapsing, and rounded pillows of new snow and avoid steep terrain where you could trigger them.

Any wind-drifted avalanche may step down into a deeper buried weak layer resulting in a larger avalanche.

Example of the soft slab avalanches of wind drifted snow you could find today. Brighton Hill - B. Nalli. Find full observation HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Out of the wind zone, you may still be able to find sensitive soft slabs of new snow and fast, long-running sluffs on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. While new snow avalanches can be consequential on their own - the primary concern is if they step down into the buried persistent weak layer.

If the sun comes out, we could see wet-loose avalanches on the solar slopes. Pay attention to the snow surface becoming damp.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The deeply-buried persistent weak layer (PWL) from November continues to gain strength and it has become harder to initiate an avalanche on this layer. It may take a significant trigger - this could include a large cornice fall, multiple riders on a slope at a time, or another avalanche adding more weight to the snowpack, and stepping down to trigger this layer. Any avalanche triggered on this weak faceted snow would be 2-7' deep.

We have begun seeing avalanches that could be stepping down into this PWL. This is a heads-up that we could be hitting the tipping point in additional snow load and overall additional weight and may continue to see more avalanches stepping down into the weak facets.

Areas where you are more likely to trigger this PWL, are shallow thinner spots, rocky ridges, and mid-elevation terrain.

This report from Parley's Canyon still shows weak faceted snow buried under 3' of harder-density snow.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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