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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, January 12, 2021
There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep upper elevation slopes facing west through north through east where recent storm snow and winds have created a dense slab of snow on top of a buried persistent weak layer. Southerly upper elevation slopes and mid-elevation slopes facing west through north through east have a MODERATE avalanche danger.
Avalanches may be 2-3' deep and over 200' wide. These are dangerous avalanche conditions - avoid being on, underneath, or adjacent to steep slopes on these aspects and elevations where human-triggered avalanches are likely.
If you are exiting a resort boundary and entering the backcountry, you are likely stepping into a CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER where dangerous avalanches can be triggered.
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Special Announcements
With great sadness, the Utah Avalanche Center reports that a 31-year old male snowboarder from Clinton, Utah, was killed in a backcountry avalanche in Dutch Draw off of Silver Peak, located on the Park City Ridgeline. The final report for the avalanche fatality is available HERE.
Please join UAC Forecaster Craig Gordon in partnership with Park City Professional Ski Patrol Association on a Zoom presentation as we discuss the current state of our snowpack, what we can expect moving forward, and how we can still ride the Greatest Snow on Earth safely. Join zoom HERE.
Weather and Snow
This morning, under mostly clear skies we have an inversion in the mountains. Trailhead temperatures are in the low-teens °F, while mountain temperatures are in the mid-20s °F. Southwesterly winds are light with ridgetop gusts up to 20 mph.
Today, will bring partly cloudy skies and a continued warming trend. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s °F, and winds will remain light throughout the day, increasing in the afternoon, with westerly ridgetop winds below 30 mph. Lingering soft settled powder exists on the shady protected terrain while the southerly facing terrain will be crusted this morning before softening by mid-afternoon.
Yesterday large surface hoar was reported throughout the Central Wasatch, and likely formed in the Provo area mountains as well, with the low winds over the last 24 hours the surface hoar was likely preserved overnight.
Photo of the widespread surface hoar noted in East Caynon (pc: SGH)
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, there were no new avalanches reported in the Provo area backcountry. In the Central Wasatch was one new avalanche reported in the backcountry. Over the past week, we have had many close calls and one fatality. Most of these avalanches have been 1.5' - 2.5' deep and up to 175' wide, failing on weak faceted snow within the snowpack.
  • Guild Line - Silver Fork of Big Cottonwood Canyon - 9800 - Northeast Aspect - 2.5' deep x 200' wide.
Photo of the Guild Line Crown (pc: GA)
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
In simple terms, we are seeing less avalanche activity, but the base of our snowpack is made up of different layers of buried weak faceted snow with a stronger, more dense layer of snow on top. This creates a problem. If you decide to ride slopes greater than 30° degrees in steepness (avalanche terrain), you are messing with a very dangerous avalanche problem. Below are a few things to keep in mind when dealing with a PWL.
  • Responsible for roughly 70% of all avalanche fatalities
  • Avalanches can be triggered from a distance.
  • Can be triggered days, weeks, or months after being buried
  • Tracks are not a sign of stability, and you can still trigger the avalanche even though the slope is tracked up.
Travel Advice: Avoid steep west to north to east facing terrain above 9000'. Heightened avalanche conditions still exist at mid-elevations, as we are still seeing some human triggered avalanche activity in the upper reaches of the mid-elevation band, especially in specific terrain that may more closely mimic upper elevations. That could be a mid-elevation ridgeline, or shallow true north aspect holding weak snow. Steep terrain means any slope that is greater than 30° in steepness. Make sure nothing is steep above or adjacent to you as you travel as avalanches can be triggered from a distance. Personally, I am not messing with this terrain at all. I will be riding or walking in low angle terrain for the foreseeable future.
Below Greg talks about the conditions he saw traveling along the Park City Ridgeline Sunday.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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