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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Monday morning, January 11, 2021
There is a CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER on steep mid and upper elevation slopes facing west, through the north, through east where recent storm snow and winds have created a dense slab of snow on top of a buried persistent weak layer. We are seeing the most widespread instability of this layer above 8880', which is the upper reaches of our mid-elevation band and the entire upper elevation band.
Avalanches may be 2-3' deep and over 200' wide. These are dangerous avalanche conditions - avoid being on, underneath, or adjacent to steep slopes on these aspects and elevations where human-triggered avalanches are likely.
If you are exiting a resort boundary and entering the backcountry, you are likely stepping into a CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER where dangerous avalanches can be triggered.
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Special Announcements
With great sadness, the Utah Avalanche Center reports that a 31-year old male snowboarder from Clinton, Utah, was killed in a backcountry avalanche in Dutch Draw off of Silver Peak, located on the Park City Ridgeline. The final report for the avalanche fatality is available HERE.
Weather and Snow
This morning, under clear skies we have an inversion in the mountains. Trailhead temperatures are in the single digits °F, while mountain temperatures are near 20 °F. Northerly winds are calm with ridgetop speeds of 10-15 mph..
Today, will bring sunny skies with dry and stable conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s °F, and winds will remain light throughout the day with northerly ridgetop winds below 25 mph. Lingering soft settled powder exists on the shady protected terrain while the southerly facing terrain will be crusted this morning before softening by mid-afternoon.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday there were no new avalanches reported in the Provo backcountry. One new avalanche reported in the SLC backcountry. Over the past week, we have had many close calls and one fatality. Most of these avalanches have been 1.5' - 2.5' deep and up to 175' wide, failing on weak faceted snow within the snowpack.
Photo from remotely triggered No Name Bowl - avalanche pulled out on slope 30-35 degrees. (G. Gagne)
Our Week in Review - where we highlight significant weather and avalanche events from this past week - has been published. (It's good reading to get a handle on the significant number of avalanche events that have occurred over this past week.)
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Persistent Weak Layers (PWL) are defined as follows: This avalanche problem is related to persistent weak layers buried in the snowpack. Release a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the snowpack when the bond to an underlying layer fails and releases an avalanche. These weak layers typically include buried surface hoar, depth hoar, and faceted crystals.
In simple terms - we have buried weak faceted snow with a stronger, more dense layer of snow on top (this creates the problem). If you decide to ride slopes greater than 30° degrees in steepness (avalanche terrain), you are messing with a very dangerous avalanche problem. Below are a few things to keep in mind when dealing with a PWL.
  • Responsible for roughly 70% of all avalanche fatalities
  • Avalanches can be triggered from a distance.
  • Can be triggered days, weeks, or months after being buried
  • Tracks are not a sign of stability, and you can still trigger the avalanche even though the slope is tracked up.
Travel Advice: Avoid steep west to north to east facing terrain above 8800'. Dangerous avalanche conditions still exist at mid-elevations, as we are still seeing avalanche activity in the upper reaches of the mid-elevation band. Steep terrain means any slope that is greater than 30° in steepness. Make sure nothing is steep above or adjacent to you as you travel as avalanches can be triggered from a distance. Personally, I am not messing with this terrain at all. I will be riding or walking in low angle terrain for the foreseeable future.
The image below shows that the danger stays elevated for many days after a loading event when dealing with persistent weak layers.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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