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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Sunday morning, December 21, 2025

Today, a MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing west through north through east at the upper elevations for triggering a slab avalanche 1–2 feet deep that fails on a buried persistent weak layer. There is also a MODERATE danger for wind-drifted snow across all upper elevations, where it will be possible to trigger fresh drifts of wind-blown snow.

Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identify features of concern, and remember that human-triggered avalanches are possible.

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Weather and Snow

Overnight, southwest wind increased around 10:00 PM and continues this morning. Ridgetop winds are blowing 10–25 mph with gusts into the 30s. Current mountain temperatures range from 46 °F at Ben Lomond Trailhead (6,000') to 28 °F at the top of Ogden Peak (9,400').

For today, we can expect mostly cloudy skies with some light snowfall and strong winds from the southwest as a closed low builds to our west. Unfortunately, most of the moisture will stay north of us. Mountain temperatures will climb today into the upper 30s to low 40s °F, and the rain/snow line is expected to rise above 9,000 feet.

The next storm is expected on the 24th. It's a massive closed low (cyclone) that spins counterclockwise off the west coast of California. Weather models are excited, showing statewide precipitation. That said, I am not holding my breath. We will see.

Recent Avalanches

There were no reported avalanches yesterday. Cracking, collapsing, and propagating extended column tests continue to be reported. Find all recent observations HERE.

Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Strong southwest wind increased last night and is still blowing this morning. Strong winds over the past few days have been efficient at moving any available snow and building fresh drifts along ridgelines and in exposed terrain. You’ll find the most suspect soft slabs of wind-drifted snow on leeward north through east-facing slopes, especially in the upper elevations, but watch for cross-loaded features on a variety of aspects—gullies, sub-ridges, rock bands, and on mid-slope breakovers.

On slopes facing west through north through east at the upper elevations, any wind slab you trigger will likely fail on a buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow (see PWL below)

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Today, it will be possible to trigger a soft slab avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer, especially in upper-elevation areas with a shallow snowpack where wind has drifted additional snow into cohesive slabs.

Before the storm, faceted snow capped by crusts was common up to around 8,500 feet. Damp facets going into the storm, followed by warm temperatures, rain, and wet snow, may create short-term instability. Looking ahead, this same warming may eventually help strengthen persistent weak layers once the snowpack refreezes and stabilizes.

Derek's snowpit below:

Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Yesterday, we found wet snow to be generally unreactive and eventually transitioning to cold, dry snow around 8,000 feet, with no concerns for wet-snow avalanches. Today, however, even warmer temperatures are expected, with the rain–snow line rising to around 9,000 feet. Anytime rain falls on dry, cold snow, expect rapid formation of roller balls followed by wet-loose sluffs. Stay on guard if a rain-on-snow event develops.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.