Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for
Sunday, March 31, 2019
This morning the avalanche danger is LOW on all east through west aspects. By mid morning and early afternoon the avalanche danger will quickly rise to MODERATE or higher in the steep sunlit terrain due to strong sun and warming temperatures. Human and natural wet loose avalanches will be possible.

The mid and upper elevation steep northwest through northeast facing terrain has a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche 2-3' deep on a buried persistent weak layer.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Utah has a rich history of avalanches. From the earlier mining days of Alta to the start of avalanche research and snow science in the US in Little Cottonwood Canyon in 1939. Snowpack and weather data has been collected from the Alta Guard Station every year since making it the longest snow plot history in the US. These roots made the UAC an early leader in avalanche education and forecasting.
Weather and Snow
Under clear skies the overnight mountain temperatures dropped into the teens and low 20's °F leading to a solid re-freeze of the snow surface. Winds are from the northerly direction blowing 5-10 mph gusting into the 20's across the upper elevations. Today will be a beautiful sunny day with temperatures rising into the 30's & 40's at 8,500'. By the afternoon the 9,500' temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 20's °F. Winds will be from the northerly direction and they are forecasted to remain calm throughout the day.
Yesterday's sun and warm temperatures cooked many if not all the steep sunlit slopes. The snow became wet and soggy on all aspects below about 7,000' by late afternoon. This morning those aspects and elevations will have a supportable crust that will quickly soften by mid morning. The northwest, north and northeast facing slopes above about 7,500' in elevation has excellent dry cold powder snow.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, the mountains went through a natural wet loose avalanche cycle beginning about 11:00 am. Most of these slides were small, starting at and point and fanning out 50' feet wide before stopping in the lower angled terrain. (Photo Below: Hardesty/Wilson. Wet loose avalanches in the Ogden area.)
A snowboarder was caught and carried in an avalanche yesterday in the Powder Mountain backcountry, outside the resort boundaries. This avalanche was on an east facing slope (45° in steepness) 9,200' in elevation and was 1' deep 250' wide running 1,000' vertical feet downhill. The rider was caught and carried for 600' feet before coming to a stop. The rider was uninjured and did report the slide to Powder Mountain ski patrol.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong sun and warming temperatures will be the main issue today. The good news: this problem is predictable and avoidable. As the day heats up the east facing terrain will be the first to become wet and soggy, followed by the south, southwest and finally the west aspects later in the day. As the snow surface becomes damp, wet and soggy it's time to get off of and out from under any steep sunlit terrain. This wet snow could pack a punch if gets warm enough today as there are slick crusts 10-15" down for the wet snow to run fast and far on. Many of the lower elevation are completely wet and saturated and some slides may gouge down into the snowpack making larger wet avalanches.
Think about your exit strategy today. If you're riding out one of the many steep drainages remember, there are steep slopes way above you where wet debris could travel a long distance from above.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A buried weak layer still exists on mid and upper elevation northerly facing slopes. Read more about people finding it observation 1 and observation 2. Drew Hardesty and Zinnia Wilson found this layer yesterday and had it fail across their column while performing a stability test. It was enough information for them to back off the steeper terrain and ride down the lower angled ridge line. If you're going to ride in terrain that faces northwest though northeast, it would be worth digging 2-3 feet down and performing a stability test. Or simple avoid it by sticking to slopes less than 30° degrees in steepness for another couple of days. Read Drew and Zinnia's observation HERE.
Photo: Buried weak layer in the Ogden mountains.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.