Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Thursday morning, February 6, 2025

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists for lingering wind slabs at the mid and upper elevations and for possible gouging wet avalanches at the mid and low elevations. Cornices remain tender and are to be avoided.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

The Preliminary Report for Monday's Monte Cristo avalanche fatality is HERE.

Our condolences go out to the victim's friends and family and all those affected by this tragic accident. UAC staff visited the site on Tuesday and a full report is forthcoming.

Weather and Snow

Yesterday afternoon's frontal passage offered gusty winds and a inch to three inches of mostly graupel.

But now the term whiplash comes to mind: we have a storm on tap for tomorrow and - in-lockstep - temperatures have rebounded back into the mid to upper-20s and winds are again moderate to strong from the southwest. Skies have scattered clouds but I bet we'll see a few flurries by the afternoon. Tomorrow's storm will probably have an initial rain/snow line of up to 7500' (possibly as high as 8000') and it looks as if most of the precipitation will arrive warm and dense ahead of a suppertime cold front. 6-12" is a fair bet; maybe more. Winds are to remain moderate to strong from the west-southwest for most the day. By evening, we'll see some light snow in the valley and mountain temps plummet to the low single digits by late weekend. The long term looks somewhat active.

Recent Avalanches

Fairly quiet. Explosive work produced a few shallow wind slabs and backcountry observers noted some wet avalanches on the solar aspects.

Observations and Avalanches

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The winds remain merciless. Hard and soft slabs of wind drifted snow litter the steep terrain, although they are more stubborn and sluggish than late weekend into Monday. I would chalk them up as stable, but many of these wind slabs, however, do rest upon a layer of weak snow (last week's snow surface) and remain prone to triggering.

Cornices are becoming unruly along the ridgelines - remember to give these growing monsters a wide berth.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

There are two buried persistent weak layers (PWL) in the snowpack:

The upper layer formed during last week’s cold, clear weather and many wind slabs are failing at this layer, as mentioned above.

The lower layer, near the ground, has been spotty and inconsistent, but clearly the avalanche in the Monte Cristo area failed on facets near the ground.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

I do think that last night's window of clearing skies and drop in temps will have reduced the likelihood of triggering wet avalanches, but the isothermal wet snow at the mid and low elevations has not had time to completely lock up. I could picture any avalanche from above still gouging down into unconsolidated grains. By tomorrow into the weekend, however, things should be locked up tight as a drum and it'll be nice to take wet avalanches off the menu in early February.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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